Alberta Fact Check: Michael Solberg says independence supporters are selling a fantasy. Does his own analysis hold up?
The irony is that Solberg accuses independence supporters of making assumptions while promoting a report that relies on assumptions about debt negotiations, borrowing costs, transition arrangements, tax policy, federal asset division, and economic behaviour that nobody can know today.
"The separatist movement continues to make broad sweeping fantastical assumptions about an Alberta utopia," suggested Michael Solberg, a former Stephen Harper staffer and founder of federalist group Vote To Stay, as he promoted a report by former Alberta finance official Lennie Kaplan claiming an independent Alberta would face a $27.2 billion first-year deficit and crushing debt costs.
The report is built on assumptions that are every bit as speculative as the scenario it criticizes.
Separatist leaders claim Alberta can leave Canada for $6 billion. This is pure fantasy.
— Vote to Stay (@VotetoStayAB) June 17, 2026
Former Alberta Finance official Lennie Kaplan projects an independent Alberta could face a $27.2 billion deficit in its first year alone – before accounting for many of the promises… pic.twitter.com/KJFuPsWQj1
Kaplan's analysis begins with a major premise: that Alberta would automatically inherit roughly $174 billion of federal debt and pay about $10 billion annually to service it. Yet there is no formula in Canadian law that dictates how debt would be allocated after a successful independence negotiation.
According to the Fraser Institute, Alberta contributed a net $244.6 billion more to Ottawa than it received back between 2007 and 2022 alone. Alberta's fiscal relationship with the rest of Canada is not a trivial factor that can simply be ignored, it's a key driver in separatist sentiment.
Even Kaplan acknowledges that many of the numbers remain unknown and that his analysis will be updated as more information becomes available.
The irony is that Solberg accuses independence supporters of making assumptions while promoting a report that relies on assumptions about debt negotiations, borrowing costs, transition arrangements, tax policy, federal asset division, and economic behaviour that nobody can know today.
Albertans absolutely deserve facts before they vote.
They also deserve to know the difference between a projection, a negotiation outcome, and a certainty.
Sheila Gunn Reid
Chief Reporter
Sheila Gunn Reid is the Editor-in-Chief, Alberta Bureau Chief, member of the board of directors, and host of The Gunn Show at Rebel News. Sheila also serves as President of the Independent Press Gallery of Canada. A mother of three and longtime conservative activist, Sheila is the author of bestselling books, including her most recent release, Independence Blueprint: What Alberta Can Learn From Quebec.
https://mybook.to/sheilaFeatured Stories
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COMMENTS
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Barry Gilbertson commented 2026-06-19 01:26:18 -0400This where Good faith negotiations come in spades. The more and harder the federal government in Ottawa makes them. The less cooperative Alberta will be in debt assumption. It in alls interest to keep this civil and cooperative for the near open borders that are wished for. -
Bernhard Jatzeck commented 2026-06-18 12:56:41 -0400If Alberta became independent, how can it be held responsible for its share of what would then be another country’s debt?
