Canada's violent crime rate is higher than the U.S., but you'd never know it from headlines
Criminologist Dr. John Lott joined Ezra Levant to explain why Canada's reputation as a safer country than the United States is built almost entirely on a single misleading metric, and why the real numbers tell a very different story.
Canadians have long told themselves they live in a safer country than the United States, but Dr. John Lott says that story depends almost entirely on which number you choose to look at — and on the fact that Canadians barely report crime to police at all.
Lott, founder of CrimeResearch.org and author of More Guns Less Crime, joined Ezra Levant on Tuesday's episode of The Ezra Levant Show to walk through Statistics Canada data that almost never surfaces in mainstream coverage.
In the United States, about 48% of violent crimes are reported to police. In Canada, the most recent figure is around 21%. That gap alone, Lott explained, makes Canada look far safer than it is when media compare reported crime figures.
"Even if the true underlying rate of crime was exactly the same in the two countries," he said, "the reported crime is going to make it look like the United States has a much higher rate, even though that's not the case."
When you adjust for underreporting and compare total victimization rates, the picture flips entirely. Canada's overall violent crime victimization rate is approximately 295% higher than the American rate.
Even excluding sexual assault to account for differences in legal definitions, Canada's violent crime rate remains 175% higher. The robbery rate is 268% higher. The burglary rate is 259% higher. "Canada's crime problem is worse than people realize," Lott wrote in a separate post on social media, highlighted by Ezra.
Ezra noted the comparison Canadians typically reach for — murder rates — and Lott explained why it is the most misleading metric available.
Yes, the US murder rate is roughly twice Canada's. But 56% of American murders occur in just 2% of counties, and within those counties, about two-thirds occur within 10-block areas. Seventy percent of American counties have zero or one murder per year.
"It's overwhelmingly gang-related," Lott said. What tells you more is the burglary data, he suggested.
Canada's rate of so-called "hot burglaries" — break-ins that occur while residents are home — sits at around 40%, compared to roughly 13% in the United States. American burglars typically strike around 2:00 p.m. in the afternoon, when people are out.
Canadian burglars are more likely to strike in the evening — because forcing occupants to reveal the location of valuables is part of the plan. The reason American burglars avoid occupied homes, Lott said, is straightforward: "criminals are worried about getting shot."
In contrast, Ezra pointed out that the Toronto Police Service's official advice to homeowners facing this reality is to leave key fobs near the front door so thieves can steal cars without having to confront residents.
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COMMENTS
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Bruce Atchison commented 2026-06-24 19:48:24 -0400This must be forwarded to as many folks as possible. Only the truth will dispel the lies of the anti-gun goons.
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Ron Hoover commented 2026-06-24 17:07:36 -0400“In contrast, Ezra pointed out that the Toronto Police Service’s official advice to homeowners facing this reality is to leave key fobs near thieves can steal cars without having to confront residents.”
This sounded pretty incredible and this is what I found when doing a quick search.
“The controversial advice was stated by a Toronto Police Service officer at a community safety meeting in early 2024.The officer suggested that residents leave their key fobs near the front door (specifically inside a signal-blocking Faraday bag) to prevent armed home invasions. The rationale was that since criminals are breaking in explicitly for vehicles, minimizing confrontation reduces the risk of residents being attacked by armed intruders. The advice sparked significant public backlash and mockery, prompting the Toronto Police Service to issue an official statement.
The department clarified that while the officer’s advice was “well-meaning” and intended to prioritize personal safety over property, they advised residents to consider other preventive measures instead.
Rather than leaving fobs near entry points, official Toronto Police Service guidelines now focus on security-first methods, including:
Parking vehicles in a garage, if possible.
Installing high-definition security cameras and motion-sensor lighting.
Adding multipoint door locks and security film to glass windows.
Activating home security systems while sleeping."
Listen, I’m no fan of the police, and I often follow Rebel News because I find it provides perspectives that are frequently missing from mainstream coverage. But when I see examples like this, it undermines their credibility. While the statement is technically based on something that was said, presenting it without the important context—that the advice was later clarified and is not current Toronto Police Service guidance—creates a misleading impression. There are plenty of legitimate issues facing the country that deserve attention without relying on selective or inflammatory framing. A fair and complete presentation of the facts should be strong enough to make the case on its own. When a news outlet sacrifices context for a more provocative narrative, it risks diminishing its own integrity and becoming no better than the outlets it criticizes.
