While speaking at an event last week, Peter Zeihan implied that a successful vote for independence would lead to an almost immediate merger with the United States. He said, “Make no mistake, choosing not to be Canadian means choosing to be American.”

The path to American statehood isn’t that easy or clear, and there has been little desire shown on either side of the border for Alberta to become a state.

Zeihan was the subject of one of our fact checks back in June when he offered a video tirade from an Italian mountaintop rife with ignorance of the state of affairs in Alberta. While he has come into closer proximity to the debate, he appears to still know little about it. But he hasn’t let that stop him from sharing his thoughts on the debate.

In his recent speech, he stated, “If Alberta left Canada and applied for statehood, even in today's environment, I think it would be a slam dunk.”

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The desire to pursue statehood is only held by a tiny majority within the independence movement. It’s nonexistent among federalists. Recent Leger surveys put preference for Alberta joining the U.S. at around 4%. Environics data on western provinces show only about 7% favoring a U.S. option.

Let’s just imagine for the sake of discussion that Alberta became independent and suddenly the population wanted to join the USA. It would be anything but a slam dunk.

Under the U.S. Constitution, Congress admits new states. That requires legislation passing the House by simple majority and, in practice, clearing the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster threshold, then presidential signature. Adding a jurisdiction of roughly 5 million people would immediately create two new senators, additional House seats (triggering nationwide reapportionment), and electoral votes. Anybody watching American politics knows the odds of such a move sailing through the process are slim to none. Occasional rhetorical interest from figures in the Trump orbit does not equal congressional willingness.

US annexation aside, Zeihan said “You'll be landlocked. You'll have no options to send anything anywhere unless you cut a deal with a new power, and the only power is the United States, and the United States will have certain conditions.”

Alberta is already landlocked and has found that sending products south is easier than trying to convince Canada to allow the shipment of resources east or west. The situation would be no different upon independence. In fact, Alberta could wield more trade leverage. Not just with the USA, but with the rest of Canada. Let’s not pretend Canada under Carney’s diplomatic guidance has been cutting great trade deals with the USA. It’s hard to imagine an independent Alberta doing worse.

Zeihan as a self-styled geopolitical expert likes to expound on issues outside of his country of origin. That’s his trade. He would be well served to research a little more deeply into local political circumstances in countries before sharing his thoughts on them though. His accuracy rate when it comes to speaking about the Alberta independence situation leaves much to be desired.