Editor's Note: The article has been updated to include comment from Alberta's Treasury Board.

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It's widely believed that the federal government's 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP), especially the proposed oil and gas “emissions” cap, threatens Alberta's economy, with potential harm compared to the 1980s National Energy Program.

A 2025 report by the Conference Board of Canada, commissioned by the Alberta government, analyzed the economic impacts of current policies through 2050.

Another report by the Board took aim at the cap. The federal Cabinet refused to comment on its potential economic impact last November.

Released publicly in March, the report's detailed data tables were withheld. After an April access to information request, The Hub obtained partial data revealing federal climate policies are projected to cost Alberta nearly $1 trillion in economic activity from 2030 to 2050.

During that period, Alberta's economy is projected to shrink by a cumulative $941.7 billion, with the oil and gas sector alone accounting for $793.8 billion of this decline. This will lead to a significant drop in real GDP, with estimates of $23.1 billion less in 2030 and $73.6 billion less in 2050 for the overall economy.

The province's oil and gas sector GDP is expected to be $19 billion lower in 2030 and $59 billion lower in 2050. This contraction will also impact individual residents, with disposable income per person projected to decrease by $664 in 2030 and $3,291 in 2050.

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In addition, employment losses are estimated at 50,700 by 2030, increasing to 157,960 by 2050. The unemployment rate is predicted to rise by 0.5 percentage points in 2030 and 0.9 percentage points in 2050.

Furthermore, mining and oil and gas extraction production is anticipated to be 1.038 million barrels per day equivalent (BOE) lower in 2030, escalating to 3.445 million BOE lower in 2050.

Alberta and the federal treasury stand to lose significant resource royalties, income taxes, and other oil and gas benefits by adopting the ERP and the “emissions” cap. 

Premier Danielle Smith stated the ERP, estimated to remove $102 billion from Alberta’s economy (2030-2033), makes the 1980 National Energy Program (NEP), which destroyed an estimated $37 billion (1981-1984), "look like a children’s play toy."

Albertans question the long-term sustainability of supporting a federal government that views energy workers as a liability rather than an asset.

A Leger survey reveals Albertans are Canada's most pessimistic, with only 23% seeing the economy as "good" and 70% as "poor." Household finance confidence fell to 54% in June 2025, while 68% of Albertans believe a recession is ongoing, compared to 49% nationally.

Lennie Kaplan, a former Alberta Treasury Board bureaucrat, advocates for the Premier to release the Conference Board report's detailed economic and fiscal data. This data would “guide its consultations with Albertans in developing realistic policies to assert the province’s sovereignty within a united Canada,” he wrote for The Hub.

Rebel News contacted the Premier’s Office, which forwarded the inquiry to Alberta's Treasury Board; they responded post-publication.

“Alberta’s government released both Conference Board of Canada studies in March 2025," said Treasury Board spokesperson Marisa Breeze. "These reports outline in significant detail the socio-economic impacts of the federal emissions cap and emissions reduction plan, which is more detailed than any other study we are aware of, including the federal government’s own analysis."

Federal climate policy is projected to negatively impact Alberta's fiscal balance by $151.3 billion between 2030-31 and 2045-46. This fiscal harm is over 60% of Alberta's $244.6 billion net contribution to federal finances from 2007 to 2022.

Kaplan demands the ERP be scrapped for an "Alberta Accord" with Ottawa, stating the economic and fiscal losses are a structural hit to Alberta's prosperity and future investment capability.

Albertans post-election worry about continued Liberal attacks on the energy sector, including pipeline cancellations, emissions regulations, and net-zero policies. A Liberal cabinet minister confirmed the cap would stay.