Conservatives poised for landslide victory in Canada as Trudeau's Liberals falter, new poll suggests

A recent poll conducted by Abacus Data, one of Canada's most reliable polling firms, indicates that if national elections were held today, the country would experience a significant political upheaval. The survey suggests that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party would be ousted from power, with the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, securing a commanding majority in the Canadian Parliament.

The poll, which surveyed over 3,500 adults between March 16 and March 24, found that 41% of committed voters would support the Conservative Party, while only 23% would back the Liberal Party. The New Democratic Party garnered 19% support, and the Green Party received 4%.

"Since the beginning of the year, we have seen stability in vote intentions with the Conservatives consistently in the low 40s and the Liberals stuck in the low to mid 20s," Abacus reported. Notably, the Conservatives led among all age groups, with the Liberal vote share increasing as the age of voters rose, suggesting that younger Canadians are more likely to recognize the shortcomings of Trudeau's leadership.

The survey also revealed a profound dissatisfaction with the current government, with only one in four voters believing that Canada is headed in the right direction. A staggering 59% of voters disapproved of Trudeau's performance as prime minister, and 58% held a negative impression of him, leaving him with a net favorability rating of -34 points. In contrast, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre enjoyed a net positive rating of 4 points, with 38% of voters having a positive view of him and 34% holding a negative impression.

Perhaps most damning for the incumbent government, a mere 15% of voters believed that Trudeau and his party deserved to be reelected, while 52% felt it was time for a change in leadership.

The poll also highlighted concerns about the Trudeau government's priorities and effectiveness, with 61% of voters believing that the Prime Minister was focused on the wrong issues, 48% considering him ineffective, and 53% perceiving a lack of transparency in his actions.

Furthermore, the survey indicated that Conservative voters were more likely to turn out on election day compared to supporters of the Liberal Party or the NDP. Nearly half of the respondents, 46%, predicted a Conservative victory in the next election, while only 21% expected the Liberals to retain power.

Commenting on the findings, Abacus Data CEO David Coletto stated, "In evaluating the Trudeau government, Canadians expressed concerns about its focus and effectiveness, with a majority viewing the government as distracted, focused on the wrong priorities, and closed. These perceptions are closely tied to vote intention, suggesting any path back to competitiveness for the Liberals will require it to address these public perceptions."

The next federal election is currently scheduled for October 2025.