Even the left-wing media admits the 'Yes' vote is floundering in Voice to Parliament debate
Poll claims support for the Indigenous Voice referendum has fallen to just 49% as Aussies call out lack of detail about proposed constitutional change.
Support for the proposed Indigenous Voice referendum has fallen from 53% to 49%, risking the necessary majority vote as the Senate prepares to make a crucial decision on the constitutional change.
The latest survey conducted by Resolve Strategic indicates a swing against the proposal for the third consecutive month, with three states, namely Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia, now backing the No case.
Although support for the Indigenous Voice stands at 56% in Victoria and 53% in New South Wales, these figures are outweighed by powerful swings in the other states, potentially obstructing the reform's path to attaining the required threshold of a majority of votes in a majority of states, The Sydney Morning Herald reports.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has dismissed requests for amending the Indigenous Voice proposal before the Senate casts its vote on the wording of the question in the forthcoming referendum bill, solidifying the plan for a public vote later this year.
According to the Resolve survey, 42% of voters support the Indigenous Voice, while 40% oppose it, and a further 18% remain undecided when presented with the government's proposal for change. When respondents were asked a second question that only allowed a Yes or No answer mirroring the format of a referendum, 49% expressed support for the change, whereas 51% opposed it.
This survey from Resolve is the first major poll to indicate a majority of No voters, with three states aligning with the No side. Jim Reed, the director of Resolve, suggested that the debate had reached a "tipping point," where proponents of the change were unable to secure a national majority or a majority of states.
"The No voters report being more committed in their choice than the Yes voters," Reed noted.
"This tells us that those people who have moved to No are locking in behind that choice, whereas the remaining Yes voters are wavering."
The survey further revealed that although nearly all voters are now aware of the Indigenous Voice, only 30% felt confident enough to explain it to others. Reed stated that the lack of understanding about the details of the proposal likely contributes to the increasing No votes.
Reed added:
"The Yes vote has dropped from 58% to 49% over three months, so when we consider the state breakdown, it actually underestimates the current position of the No side."
The strongest objections to the Indigenous Voice are observed in Queensland, where only 44% of voters are in favor, followed by South Australia (48% support) and Western Australia (49% support). Tasmania, on the other hand, shows majority support for the Voice, with 57% of voters in favor, although caution is advised due to the small sample size.
While Prime Minister Albanese and federal cabinet ministers remain confident in winning the vote, the latest survey reveals a decline in support among Labor voters, from 75% in April to 69% in May and further to 63% in June.
Support among Greens voters has remained stable at 81% in June, while Coalition voters have seen a decline from 30% in April to 27% in May and now stand at 26% in the latest survey. Consequently, 74% of Coalition voters now side with the No position.
The Resolve Political Monitor conducted a survey involving 1606 eligible voters to gauge their views on the government's proposed wording for the referendum bill.
The survey's margin of error is 2.4 percentage points, which exceeds the narrow margin between the 51% supporting the No side and the 49% supporting the Yes side.
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