Guilbeault used ‘misleading data’ to defend electric car mandate

THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn

According to internal records, the Trudeau Liberals utilized misleading data and inaccurate generalizations in defense of their electric car mandate.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) admitted on December 20 that their 2035 ban on inexpensive gas vehicles will cost drivers billions of dollars and "disproportionately impact" the working poor, reported Blacklock’s Reporter.

"This will help Canadians with the cost of living," claimed Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault. "Once you drive a car off the lot the savings on fueling and maintenance costs are enormous."

However, the claim is false, according to the report Regulatory Impact Analysis Statement, as the costs incurred by motorists amount to $17.4 billion between 2024 and 2050.

Canada to announce all new cars sold must be zero-emissions by 2035

Electric vehicles currently make up about 13% of all vehicle sales globally.https://t.co/ETPvJAVTrU

— Rebel News (@RebelNewsOnline) December 18, 2023

According to the regulatory impact analysis statement, Passenger Automobile And Light Truck Greenhouse Gas Emission Regulations, the switch to zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) is expected to cost drivers $54.1 billion minus $36.7 billion in savings on energy costs. 

Breaking down the $54.1 billion in costs includes $38.5 billion for the ZEV chargers, $15.5 billion for the vehicles themselves, and $2.6 million for administration. While the $36.7 billion in savings comes from an estimated $100 billion in savings on liquid fuel minus $63.3 billion in electricity costs until 2050. 

Including the energy savings, the total benefits would be $132.8 billion, and provide $78.6 billion in net benefits to Canadians. It adds the ban on gas vehicles will save taxpayers $96.1 billion in "avoided global damages," courtesy of emission reductions. 

ECCC did not clarify how they reached that calculation in a request for comment by Blacklock’s Reporter. 

The federal government’s obsession with electric vehicles appears to be a one-way street as only 3% of government-issued vehicles are zero emission.

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However, Guilbeault says the costs of the electric car mandate would fall over time — a claim the Analysis Statement found misleading.

"Electric vehicles are quickly reaching cost parity with their gas-powered alternatives," he said. "As new models of electric sedans, trucks, SUVs, crossovers and more keep coming on the market, almost all industry projections show by the end of the decade at the latest the purchase price of gas-powered and electric cars will be about the same."

But the Analysis Statement said while some electric cars may decrease in price "other vehicle types do not reach price parity" like electric pick-ups and plug-in hybrid cars. The resulting net cost would "disproportionately impact" low-income drivers forced to buy costly new cars, it said.

"It is expected that these incremental costs will be passed onto ZEV purchasers," the document states. "These consumers are also expected to incur ongoing costs associated with charging their ZEVs instead of paying liquid fuel costs for non-ZEVs." Whereas Ottawa is not expected to incur any additional costs "beyond the need to inform stakeholders of the Amendments."

Rural Canadians, especially those living to the north, are "expected to face more difficulties with the transition to zero-emission vehicles due to prolonged periods of cold temperatures." The Analysis Statement did not estimate those net costs.

As of writing, the federal government has yet to compile a complete costing of the electric car mandate, reported Blacklock’s Reporter. 

'Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault’s mandate requiring that Canadians drive electric cars will cost at least $99 billion, new federal figures show,' said Blacklock's Reporter.

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This week’s announcement also excludes the "costs of retraining mechanics," the likelihood of higher electricity rates, "wear and tear on roads" from heavier electrics and higher insurance premiums for drivers.

Nevertheless, the ECCC says there is an "urgent need to address climate change" by moving to a low-carbon economy now. They claim passenger cars and light trucks account for about 40% of emissions in the transportation sector.

"Reducing emissions in all sectors, including transportation, is necessary to tackle climate change and reach the Government of Canada’s emission reduction target of 40 percent to 45 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 and net zero by 2050," it said.

The Analysis Statement says the emissions reduction resulting from the switch to electric cars amounts to 362 megatonnes.

To calculate the benefits, they multiplied the emissions avoided each year by the ECCC’s "social cost of carbon" (SCC). It measures the impact of carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide on food production, human health, energy systems, disaster repair bills, and property values, reported the Epoch Times.

Although a previous analysis estimated the SCC would be $54 a tonne, Ottawa's updated model from April estimated costs at $247. It is set to rise to $294 by 2030.