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Elections Alberta has confirmed it investigated Forever Canadian, the group led by former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk, after a complaint from Rebel News, and that the matter ended in a compliance agreement with no fine, four days before Alberta’s Oct. 19 referendum.

In a Notice of Outcome sent to Rebel News lawyer Chad Williamson, the Election Commissioner said an investigation was opened Aug. 20, 27 days after Rebel’s July 24 complaint. The commissioner found that at some events, speakers referred to the referendum question, but said: “the bulk of events and materials I reviewed did not fall within the definition of referendum advertising.” Forever Canadian agreed to separate referendum advertising contributions from other donations and to report the costs of certain events held on or after Aug. 20.

On Friday's Rebel Roundup livestream, Ezra Levant called the outcome a partial win but one that came far too late.

“For two and a half months, they’ve kept this secret. They’ve kept this quiet. They’ve done nothing," he said. "And literally four days before the vote, they mention it. Too late for this to have any effect on the course of things.”

Ezra said it was a victory that Rebel News got the regulator to act, but noted the compliance agreement carries no penalty.

“It is a victory that we got them to do something. It is a victory that we got them to sign a compliance agreement," he said. "But do see how corrupt Elections Alberta is? There’s no fine here that I can see. There’s no condemnation.”

He took particular issue with the commissioner’s finding that Forever Canadian’s events were general information rather than advertising, pointing to the group’s campaign offices and buses.

“The largest campaign in the province, the noisiest Remain campaign, they’re saying it wasn’t campaigning at all," said Ezra. "It was just 'general information.'”

Ezra contrasted that with how Rebel’s own events were treated, recalling that a book tour featuring Tamara Lich, Cory Morgan and Sheila Gunn Reid was investigated as a possible campaign act, only to be dropped.

“They harassed us," he recalled. "They investigated that. They later dropped it after putting us through the paces.”

Turning to the vote itself, Ezra offered a prediction he said he takes no pleasure in making.

“I think it’s going to be 70% remain, 30% leave. But I think it might even be worse than that," he said, "because the money and the organization has been on the remain side... I’m worried that it’ll be more like 75-25.”

Even then, he argued, a quarter of Albertans in favour of leaving would be a political force. Those voters, he said, would likely support Premier Danielle Smith’s UCP, and could sustain an ongoing independence movement.

Ezra also said Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent pipeline announcement was timed to calm Albertans, noting that no oil company has signed on to the project.

“It’s a trick. It’s a trap... It’s not about actually building a pipeline. It’s about a press conference... Do you really believe that would be happening if it weren’t for the threat of the referendum?”