Tonight on The Ezra Levant Show: Canada's most-quoted pollster says the Conservatives would be doing about as badly under any other leader. So why is Ottawa so sure the problem is Pierre Poilievre?

David Coletto runs Abacus Data. He's the pollster CBC and the Globe and Mail call when they want a number. He is not doing the Conservatives any favours.

On Sept. 3, Coletto modelled swapping Poilievre for an imaginary leader nobody disliked. The result? About two more points nationally. Within the margin of error. His conclusion is blunt: Poilievre is not the main reason the Conservatives trail. Mark Carney is. Canadians like him and trust him to handle Donald Trump.

That should have ended the conversation. It didn't, because it was never about the numbers.

Last month, CTV called the Conservative caucus a "fractured mess," citing more than a dozen anonymous caucus sources. Not one put a name to it. Under the Reform Act, 20 per cent of caucus can trigger a leadership review. They haven't. Eight months ago, party members gave Poilievre 87.4 per cent in his leadership review.

That's not a leadership crisis. It's a mean-girls campaign. A clique decides someone is out, whispers instead of confronting, and lets social media spread the vibe.

Start with the Liberals. If they truly thought Poilievre couldn't win, they'd want him to stay. From 2022 to 2024, Jagmeet Singh's NDP polled terribly while propping up the Liberal government. The Liberals never campaigned for a new NDP leader. They kept Singh, because a weak opponent is a gift. You don't try to fire the opponent you want to face. You fire the one you don't.

Then come the so-called conservatives. Former staffers, pundits and podcasters who "just ask questions" and say they're "hearing things" from caucus. There are two kinds.

The first kind always had a guy. They lost in 2022 and never forgave the party. They don't want to beat Carney. They want a vacancy.

The second kind has noticed that a Liberal majority hands out ambassadorships, boards and Senate seats. Carney named former Conservative leader Erin O'Toole to his advisory committee on Canada-U.S. economic relations. Ottawa got the message. Every time these conservatives dump on Poilievre on X, they're auditioning for Carney's office.

The latest Abacus poll, published Sept. 27, has the Liberals up 12. But Conservatives lead among voters under 45. The Liberals lead among those over 45, with a 33-point gap among seniors.

Many seniors have paid-off houses and indexed pensions. Housing costs, youth unemployment and street crime aren't their daily reality. Carney is reassuring if nothing in your life needs to change. The people whose lives do need to change didn't pick Carney. Poilievre spent three years on housing, paycheques and crime, and they heard him.

The clique telling Conservatives to dump their leader isn't 25 and shut out of the condo market. It's comfortable Ottawa.

Poilievre might still lose. The Liberals are up 12, and that's real. But if he loses, it won't be because he was a weak leader. It'll be because Trump scared people into the arms of a banker, and because people who should have been fighting Carney fought their own side on X instead.

The Liberals never tried to get rid of Jagmeet Singh. Ask yourself why they're working so hard to get rid of Pierre Poilievre.