Economic commentator Lennie Kaplan wrote a short piece for Energy Now headlined “Alberta’s economy benefits by up to $200 billion over the next decade by remaining within a renewed Canada”.

Kaplan says that new modelling finds Alberta’s economy benefits by a cumulative $200 billion over the next decade through a new economic deal with Canada that keeps the province within the federation rather than pursuing independence.

There are a couple of problems with this hypothesis. The modelling assumes Alberta will nearly double daily oil production within a decade. Oil companies are already scaling back plans to increase production in Alberta because continued obstructionism from the federal government with pipeline expansion has bottlenecked the ability to export.

Mark Carney’s Major Projects Office appears to have only added a layer of bureaucracy rather than fast-track any projects. MOUs don’t move oil, and despite repeated promises that the federal government is considering approvals, they have gone nowhere to date.

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The new economic deal Kaplan references hasn’t been drafted yet, much less pitched to a federal government that’s been disinclined to facilitate oil and gas growth within Canada.

The other issue is that even if this speculative deal were to be created, pitched and accepted by the federal government, it wouldn’t increase the numbers enough to make remaining in the federation a good economic deal.

Lennie Kaplan himself wrote only a few weeks ago that Albertans will send $312.4 billion more to Ottawa than they will get back over the next 12 years, 2025-2036. To be fair, in that piece Kaplan is calling for a new deal as well, which presumably would narrow that gap. But again it’s asking for something that Ottawa doesn’t want to put on the table. Items such as equalization are constitutionally entrenched, and the political picture in Canada doesn’t encourage the governing party to adjust a model that pours Western money into vote-rich Eastern provinces.

There is no guarantee that Alberta’s independence would lead to greater economic output or export abilities either. But it is almost assured that remaining within the federation will lead to a continued bleeding of Alberta’s economy by an indifferent federal government. Alberta has been asking for a new deal for generations and has gotten nowhere. That’s why the latest deal on the table involves leaving the federation.