Fact Check: Is Alberta independence talk hurting the economy? Doesn’t seem so
Recent figures show Alberta's economy is growing faster than forecast and faster than most of Canada.
Opponents of Alberta independence have repeatedly warned that merely discussing separation risks frightening investors, creating economic uncertainty and damaging the province.
But if independence talk is driving investment out of Alberta, the latest numbers aren't showing it.
Alberta is on track for a sixth consecutive surplus, and the Heritage Fund is on pace to hit $35 billion in 2027.
— Danielle Smith (@ABDanielleSmith) August 27, 2026
Not only did we balance the budget in 2025-26, but we are now also on track for a $2 billion surplus in 2026-27.
Our economy is growing faster than forecast and… pic.twitter.com/gd0rpBVaSR
Premier Danielle Smith announced this week that Alberta is now forecasting a $2-billion surplus for 2026-27, putting the province on track for its sixth consecutive budget surplus.
The Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund is also projected to reach $35 billion in 2027, which the government says would essentially double its value from when Smith became premier.
And those numbers are arriving in the middle of Alberta's most serious independence debate in decades.
Hundreds of thousands of Albertans have signed petitions connected to the independence question, third-party campaigns have been operating across the province for months, and Albertans are scheduled to vote in a provincial referendum on October 19.
If the very existence of that debate were enough to destabilize Alberta's economy, some evidence of that should be appearing by now.
Instead, Smith says Alberta's economy is growing faster than forecast and faster than most of Canada, while the province continues to attract new investment.
Alberta isn't experiencing collapsing government revenues or suddenly plunging into deficit. The government is forecasting another surplus, the Heritage Fund is growing, and the province says economic growth and investment are outperforming expectations.
That means claims that the current referendum campaign itself is frightening away investment should be measured against what's actually happening in Alberta's economy today.
The independence conversation is getting louder.
So far, Alberta's economy doesn't appear to be listening.
Sheila Gunn Reid
Chief Reporter
Sheila Gunn Reid is the Editor-in-Chief, Alberta Bureau Chief, member of the board of directors, and host of The Gunn Show at Rebel News. Sheila also serves as President of the Independent Press Gallery of Canada. A mother of three and longtime conservative activist, Sheila is the author of bestselling books, including her most recent release, Independence Blueprint: What Alberta Can Learn From Quebec.
https://mybook.to/sheilaFeatured Stories
03:09
