In a CTV interview, NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi said he was worried about what he called a motivation gap among voters as the referendum approaches.

Nenshi’s contention is that dedicated independence supporters will work hard to ensure they get their vote registered and that federalist supporters are more inclined to be complacent and don’t want to bother themselves with standing in line. It’s a tactic of setting expectations low and making pre-emptive excuses for referendum results that may not land where Mr. Nenshi hopes they do.

If one side is easily distracted from taking part in elections because its supporters don’t want to be bothered with lines or something good was streaming on TV that day, it indicates support for that side is simply weak.

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If a campaign can’t motivate people to vote for it, the campaign is lacking. Not just the motivation of the people being targeted to vote. If the federalist case is strong, there should be little for Nenshi to worry about.

The NDP claims it has deployed 15,000 volunteers, knocking on over 500,000 doors, and built a list of 1.2 million pro-Canada voters. Did this mobilization indicate that these identified voters don’t really want to bother voting?

The bottom line is that the only votes that matter are those that people made the effort to cast. Trying to speculate how people who choose not to vote would have voted is a fool’s game.