Fact Check: Is the Alberta independence movement fading?
It's premature to suggest Alberta's independence movement is already running out of steam.
In a column for the National Post, Colby Cosh implied the independence movement in Alberta may be waning as the referendum approaches.
Cosh cites the turnout for an Alberta Prosperity Project rally at the Alberta legislature and a Research Co. online poll of 750 people as indications the movement could be stalling.
The Research Co. poll was conducted online and found 22% support for choosing Option 2 in the October 19 referendum. An Angus Reid poll held a couple of weeks earlier found support for Option 2 to be at 33% among Albertans. While neither shows a majority of support for Option 2, the 11-point swing between the two indicates weakness in the reliability of the polls and some potential volatility among the electorate. Gauging public sentiment on politics in the latter part of August is a dicey endeavour at best.
The rally held on August 29 was described as “standing room only” and as a “sea of Alberta flags” by the Edmonton Journal. Turnout was speculated to be between 900 and 1200 people, which is admittedly lower than a rally held in October 2025 but hardly is indicative of a death rattle for the movement. Holding a rally on the last weekend of August isn’t ideal timing, and the Alberta Prosperity Project hasn’t been a very visible factor in the referendum campaign since the petitioning period ended.
Speculating that a movement could be on the wane by observing a lack of momentum during the slowest political weeks of the year is a bit on the disingenuous side.
The campaign for the October 19 vote will be truly ramping up post-Labour Day as people settle back into the regular working routine, the vacations end, and the kids go back to school. Groups on both sides of the independence question will be hitting the pavement and citizens will be more engaged.
A check on momentum in late September will be a better measure of whether or not the independence side is gaining steam.
Quebec 1995 and Brexit both saw late movement among people who wanted a shock to the system more than a clean break. If the messaging from Keith Wilson’s group begins to land, the segment of Albertans seeking to send a message through Option 2 could begin to grow.
The independence side has its work cut out for it, but at this stage in the campaign, it's premature to speculate on it running out of steam.
Cory Morgan
Cory Morgan is an Alberta-based columnist, political commentator, and longtime advocate for Western Canadian independence. He is the author of the recently updated book The Sovereigntist’s Handbook, a grassroots guide for independence supporters and political activists.
http://sovereigntistshandbook.com/Featured Stories
