Doug Ford publicly called for Alberta's oil to be cut off as a weapon against the United States, and then he got on the phone with Danielle Smith. Ford found out that Ontario and Quebec's oil flows through the United States — meaning if you cut off America, you cut off Ontario and Quebec too.

Peter McCaffrey, president of the Alberta Institute, joined Ezra Levant to discuss the moment and its broader implications for the trade war and Alberta's upcoming October vote on Monday's episode of The Ezra Levant Show.

"You would think that would be something you would try to understand before announcing that we should shut down Canada's largest industry," McCaffrey said drily. He acknowledged that Ford, to his credit, subsequently said he now supports building a pipeline from Alberta to Ontario and Quebec that bypasses the United States, a request Ezra noted, Alberta has been making for 20 years.

That very idea was a project called Energy East, and one that was killed by the Liberals. "As soon as one is proposed, they'll come up with reasons to object," Ezra said. "I think Albertans are rightfully skeptical until things actually get done."

McCaffrey also pushed back on the idea that Alberta's oil and gas sector is simply large; in fact, it's so enormous that most Canadians struggle to even grasp its size. When Quebec's premier suggested the province could offset Alberta oil tariffs by tariffing its own electricity exports, McCaffrey noted the comparison doesn't hold.

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"Alberta's oil and gas exports are larger than all of Quebec's exports in total," he said. "To make it a fair comparison, Quebec would have to offer to tariff every single thing they export." On the auto sector comparison with Ontario, the numbers are similarly lopsided — Canada exports a far greater share of its economy to the U.S. than the U.S. exports to Canada, meaning retaliatory tariffs land much harder on Canadians than on Americans.

Ezra made a point that the Alberta Institute president endorsed: Carney's retaliatory tariffs are hitting Albertans harder than Trump's are. "Albertans are being hit by triple the pain from Carney than by Trump," Ezra said.

The real threat, both agreed, is not a physical shutoff of the oil taps — which collapses on first contact with reality — but an export tax, which Carney could impose quietly and which "Elbows Up" Liberals in Ontario would cheer.

 McCaffrey's theory was that the approaching October 19 referendum in Alberta has been enough to keep Carney from pulling that trigger. "The threat of the referendum has certainly had an impact on clarifying people's minds about how seriously this needs to be taken," he said.

Ezra argued that even if the leave side falls short of 50%, hitting 30 to 40% of the vote would establish a standing political force, sending an "or else" message to Ottawa that Alberta has never had before. He compared it to Quebec, which hasn't held a referendum in decades but whose two close votes have kept Ottawa cautious and the money flowing ever since.

"Until the referendum was called," Ezra said, "Alberta simply didn't have an or else."

McCaffrey also touched on the province's broader political legacy, from Ralph Klein and Preston Manning to the Canadian Taxpayers Federation to the ideas that eventually reached Ontario through Mike Harris's Common Sense Revolution.

"Alberta has always punched above its weight, not just economically, but in terms of ideas," Ezra said, "especially free market and freedom-oriented politics."