The CBC published a cautionary tale warning Albertans of the consequences of voting for independence in referenda and used Brexit as an example. They spoke to selected people within the town of Wakefield, England, who expressed regret over choosing to leave the EU 10 years ago.

Then, the piece from the state broadcaster detailed the political and financial woes facing the UK and characterized them as consequences of Brexit.

Are the contemporary challenges being faced by the UK due to Brexit, though?

It doesn’t appear so.

Mass immigration has been the root of socioeconomic disorder within the UK for over a decade. Open borders with the EU allowed an unfettered influx of immigrants prior to Brexit, causing division due to the cultural incompatibility of many newcomers, and it overwhelmed social supports and housing within the country.

Brexit led to the stemming of the flow of immigrants entering through other European countries, but it didn’t stop the government from opening the floodgates for immigration directly from regions beyond Europe. The current disorder in the UK wouldn’t look any different had Brexit not happened.

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Low productivity in the UK has been a drag on its economy since well before Brexit, and the factors causing it haven’t changed. Overregulation has choked the housing market and reduced labour mobility. The UK has had among the lowest investment-to-GDP ratios in the G7 for decades. The issues run deeper than any caused by departing the EU.

The CBC article tries to tie the high turnover rate among prime ministers to Brexit, but doesn’t provide solid evidence of a correlation. Once Brexit was delivered in January 2020, the churn was driven overwhelmingly by domestic Conservative Party dysfunction, personal scandals, policy disasters unrelated to the EU, economic mismanagement, and electoral failure.

The lesson of Brexit is that it didn’t become a panacea to solve the UK’s problems, but it isn’t the cause of all of the UK’s problems either.

Independence, whether from the EU with the UK or from Canada with Alberta, doesn’t assure a better future unless good domestic policies are implemented. Bloated governments, broken political parties, and continued mass immigration will ensure any state remains incapable of providing prosperity and political stability.

Brexit offers a cautionary tale to Alberta, but only in that an independent Alberta must embrace reform and systemic change after leaving the federation. If the only change is in adding a border while not changing the political practices from the rest of Canada, the new nation will be doomed to suffering under the same issues it is within the federation.

There is little evidence that independence proponents in Alberta want an independent Alberta to maintain the same system and policies as the federation it aspires to leave.