Alberta’s 2025 Budget: Tax Cuts, Growing Deficit, and Economic Uncertainty

With falling oil revenues, potential U.S. tariffs, and rising costs in health care and education, the province intends to run a deficit for the first time since the pandemic.

 

 

Alberta’s 2025 budget delivers a $1.2 billion tax cut but at the cost of a $5.2 billion deficit—the first since 2020.

"Promise made. Promise kept!" said Premier Danielle Smith in a social media post. "Today our government followed through on our election commitment to lower taxes for Albertans across the province. On average, each Albertan will now keep $750 more in their pocket each year, which means $1,500 per family!"

Finance Minister Nate Horner defended the move, arguing that Albertans need financial relief despite the province facing at least three years of shortfalls.

With falling oil revenues, potential U.S. tariffs, and rising costs in health care and education, the government is doubling its contingency fund while grappling with how to balance the books.

Key Financial Figures from Alberta Budget 2025:

  • Projected deficits:

    • $5.2 billion in 2025
    • $2.4 billion in 2026
    • $2 billion in 2027
  • Personal income tax cut:

    • Albertans earning under $60,000 annually will see a 20% reduction in personal income tax.
    • The cut will cost the province $1.2 billion in lost revenue.
  • Oil price forecast (WTI per barrel):

    • $68 in 2025 (down from previous forecast of $74).
    • $71 in 2026 and $71.50 in 2027.
  • Potential U.S. tariffs (Trump trade policy impact):

    • 25% tariff on non-energy Canadian exports.
    • 10% tariff on energy exports.
    • Low-growth scenario predicts up to 42,000 job losses by 2027.
  • Spending increases:

    • Total operating expenses rising to $75.3 billion.
    • Health care spending growing to $23.7 billion by 2027.
  • Contingency fund:

    • Doubled to $4 billion to cover economic instability, labor negotiations, and disaster relief.

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Sheila Gunn Reid

Chief Reporter

Sheila Gunn Reid is the Alberta Bureau Chief for Rebel News and host of the weekly The Gunn Show with Sheila Gunn Reid. She's a mother of three, conservative activist, and the author of best-selling books including Stop Notley.

COMMENTS

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  • Bruce Atchison
    commented 2025-02-27 21:26:14 -0500
    I believe things will change this year. Liberals will be out and any tariffs will be dropped. Pierre Poilievre will start pipelines being built and he’ll negotiate good deals for Canada. Once business people see that there’s hope for better money-making opportunities, they’ll stay in Canada and we could see businesses coming to our country rather than abandoning it. I believe the hard times are close to ending.
  • Bernhard Jatzezck
    commented 2025-02-27 20:39:01 -0500
    Emperor Trudeau’s anti-Trump, anti-tariff pronouncements hasn’t helped the stock market, either.