By The Numbers: Alberta election results analysis

Ezra Levant broke down some intriguing results from Alberta's election in a thread posted to Twitter.

By The Numbers: Alberta election results analysis
The Canadian Press / Jeff McIntosh
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In a thread posted on social media, Rebel News boss Ezra Levant took a look at some voting statistics from Monday's election in Alberta. With the numbers nearly finalized ahead of June 8's official announcement, let's take a look at some of the data.

Popular Vote

Having dropped two points from her predecessor, Danielle Smith failed to outperform Jason Kenney's victory over the New Democrats, led by Rachel Notley in both elections. But contrast this result with other recent elections.

Before David Eby assumed the role of premier in British Columbia, in 2020 John Horgan and the NDP won with 48% support. In Quebec, François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec was hailed for winning the “largest majority in decades”; his party received 41% of the vote. In Ontario, Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives grew their majority, also with 41% of the popular vote.

Federally, Justin Trudeau formed his third government after capturing just 33%.

Kenney's lead evaporated

Prior to and in the early days of COVID-19, there was talk in some circles that Kenney could be the next leader of the Conservative Party of Ontario. But after broken promises on lockdowns and vaccine mandates eventually fuelled a border blockade in Coutts, Kenney's caucus was in near revolt. He would resign after narrowly surviving a leadership review vote by party members.

An aggregate showed Kenney's support at just 34% in the final opinion poll released before he announced his intention to resign on May 18, 2022. For most of the pandemic, he remained in the 30-40% range.

Smith rebuilt support

In the end, Smith retained much of the support Kenney had. But previous parties that attracted more support in the past, like the Green, Liberal and Alberta parties, collapsed. Despite internal struggles and accusations that Kenney's government failed to provide an easy transition to Smith's government, the new premier managed to navigate foes both outside and within her party.

Who stayed home?

Turnout, recorded at 62.4% in 2023's election, was down from a recent high in 2019, when 67.5% of Albertans turned out to vote. Previous elections in 2015 and 2012 saw 57% and 54.3% respectively.

NDP flips two Calgary ridings on tiny margins

A pair of Calgary ridings flipped from blue to orange with the NDP snagging two narrow victories. But, as election rules state, when the two top candidates are separated by 100 votes or fewer, an automatic recount is triggered. One of those seats, Acadia, was the riding for Tyler Shandro, the province's pandemic-era health minister who oversaw the persecution of Christian pastors and small business owners under the guise of public health restrictions.

Kenney's backers punished

Having handily won in 2019 by 20%, it certainly seems likely Shandro's role in public health enforcement influenced voters. A number of other ministers were also defeated, including Jason Copping, Nicholas Milliken, Kaycee Madu and Jeremy Nixon, the Calgary Herald reported.

Copping succeeded Shandro as health minister, while Madu served as justice minister for much of the pandemic before Shandro took over the portfolio. Nixon resigned from his role as parliamentary secretary following a trip to Hawaii while the province was under a travel advisory.

Smith gets a fresh start

It still remains to be seen who Premier Smith will select for her cabinet. For now, Smith told a local radio station the party would assess its results in Edmonton after having been shut out of the capital.

Announcing her intention to form a “council” to examine the party's performance in the city, Smith added she'd “have a good strong team of advisers making sure that nothing gets missed in Edmonton,” the Edmonton Journal reported.

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