By The Numbers: Alberta election results analysis
Ezra Levant broke down some intriguing results from Alberta's election in a thread posted to Twitter.
In a thread posted on social media, Rebel News boss Ezra Levant took a look at some voting statistics from Monday's election in Alberta. With the numbers nearly finalized ahead of June 8's official announcement, let's take a look at some of the data.
Popular Vote
1. Some stats about Danielle Smith's election win in Alberta.
— Ezra Levant 🍁🚛 (@ezralevant) May 31, 2023
Smith won 53% of the popular vote, just a touch down from Jason Kenney's 55% result in 2019.
By contrast, B.C.'s David Eby won 48%, Quebec's Francois Legault won 41%, as did Ontario's Doug Ford. (Trudeau won 33%).
Having dropped two points from her predecessor, Danielle Smith failed to outperform Jason Kenney's victory over the New Democrats, led by Rachel Notley in both elections. But contrast this result with other recent elections.
Before David Eby assumed the role of premier in British Columbia, in 2020 John Horgan and the NDP won with 48% support. In Quebec, François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec was hailed for winning the “largest majority in decades”; his party received 41% of the vote. In Ontario, Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives grew their majority, also with 41% of the popular vote.
Federally, Justin Trudeau formed his third government after capturing just 33%.
Kenney's lead evaporated
Prior to and in the early days of COVID-19, there was talk in some circles that Kenney could be the next leader of the Conservative Party of Ontario. But after broken promises on lockdowns and vaccine mandates eventually fuelled a border blockade in Coutts, Kenney's caucus was in near revolt. He would resign after narrowly surviving a leadership review vote by party members.
Calgary chants "do not comply", as thousands gather in opposition against Jason Kenney's vaccine passport.
— K2 (@kiansimone44) September 18, 2021
Full story coming to https://t.co/KNqwwDLsTZ pic.twitter.com/gBa6nfAfag
An aggregate showed Kenney's support at just 34% in the final opinion poll released before he announced his intention to resign on May 18, 2022. For most of the pandemic, he remained in the 30-40% range.
Smith rebuilt support
4. Every kook, nut, Communist, Greenpeace activist and CBC reporter voted for Notley. So while the UCP only went down 2% since the last time, the NDP went up 11%. It was the left's do-or-die moment, but it just wasn't enough.
— Ezra Levant 🍁🚛 (@ezralevant) May 31, 2023
In the end, Smith retained much of the support Kenney had. But previous parties that attracted more support in the past, like the Green, Liberal and Alberta parties, collapsed. Despite internal struggles and accusations that Kenney's government failed to provide an easy transition to Smith's government, the new premier managed to navigate foes both outside and within her party.
Who stayed home?
5. Voter turnout fell from 68% to 62%. I'd be curious to see if the stay-at-homes were Red Tories and Kenney loyalists who refused to vote for Smith's more libertarian approach, or if they were soccer moms turned off by the NDP's negative campaign.
— Ezra Levant 🍁🚛 (@ezralevant) May 31, 2023
Turnout, recorded at 62.4% in 2023's election, was down from a recent high in 2019, when 67.5% of Albertans turned out to vote. Previous elections in 2015 and 2012 saw 57% and 54.3% respectively.
NDP flips two Calgary ridings on tiny margins
7. Acadia was Tyler Shandro's riding. He was Kenney's right hand man who arrested pastors, jailed businessmen and brought in vaccine passports . That's him on the right at a party at Kenney's "sky palace", while he banned citizens from weddings and funerals. pic.twitter.com/kaVYvPvTxe
— Ezra Levant 🍁🚛 (@ezralevant) May 31, 2023
A pair of Calgary ridings flipped from blue to orange with the NDP snagging two narrow victories. But, as election rules state, when the two top candidates are separated by 100 votes or fewer, an automatic recount is triggered. One of those seats, Acadia, was the riding for Tyler Shandro, the province's pandemic-era health minister who oversaw the persecution of Christian pastors and small business owners under the guise of public health restrictions.
Kenney's backers punished
Jeremy was part of the government that banned family gatherings, limited funerals and weddings and warned against taking vacations. Then he sneaked away to Hawaii. Because he's part of the ruling class, and you're not: https://t.co/RuuSIDTvMB
— Ezra Levant 🍁🚛 (@ezralevant) May 31, 2023
Having handily won in 2019 by 20%, it certainly seems likely Shandro's role in public health enforcement influenced voters. A number of other ministers were also defeated, including Jason Copping, Nicholas Milliken, Kaycee Madu and Jeremy Nixon, the Calgary Herald reported.
Copping succeeded Shandro as health minister, while Madu served as justice minister for much of the pandemic before Shandro took over the portfolio. Nixon resigned from his role as parliamentary secretary following a trip to Hawaii while the province was under a travel advisory.
Smith gets a fresh start
WATCH: Danielle Smith delivers a warning to Albertans about Justin Trudeau's damaging policies during her election victory speech.
— Rebel News (@RebelNewsOnline) May 30, 2023
More at https://t.co/bL1Ta9P09W pic.twitter.com/K8sJyCnxQr
It still remains to be seen who Premier Smith will select for her cabinet. For now, Smith told a local radio station the party would assess its results in Edmonton after having been shut out of the capital.
Announcing her intention to form a “council” to examine the party's performance in the city, Smith added she'd “have a good strong team of advisers making sure that nothing gets missed in Edmonton,” the Edmonton Journal reported.
Never miss a story!
Get updates on our coverage of Alberta's Legislature straight to your inbox.
Sign UpDon't Get Censored
Big Tech is censoring us. Sign up so we can always stay in touch.
Don't Get Censored
Big Tech is censoring us. Sign up so we can always stay in touch.