What Monday night's by-election results really mean for Alberta
Make no mistake—the frustration, the drive for respect, and the fight for Alberta's future are alive. They're growing. And they're about to get a lot louder.
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So, the by-election results are in—and if you're watching the attempts to spin it, you'd think Albertans just voted to smother Western separatism in its crib.
They're gloating, pretending this was some kind of rejection of Alberta First values. But let me set the record straight: this wasn't a referendum on independence. It was a referendum on the vehicle, not the destination.
Albertans didn't vote against separation. They voted against vote-splitting. Against the very real fear of accidentally handing a seat to the NDP. That's it. Tactical voting—not ideological surrender.
Let's look at the numbers:
- In Edmonton-Strathcona, NDP leader Naheed Nenshi took a whopping 82.3% of the vote. But that riding was never in play. It's a downtown fortress for the socialists.
- In Edmonton-Ellerslie, the NDP's Gurtej Singh Brar held on—but support dropped from 61.8% in the general to 50.8% in the byelection. The UCP made up ground.
- And in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, a rural stronghold, UCP candidate Tara Sawyer won with 61.1%, while the separatist challenger from the RPA drew 17.7%—not nothing, but nowhere near a breakthrough.
So the electoral map didn't shift. But the public mood sure has.
According to a new Leger poll, 70% of Albertans say they understand why someone would support separation, and more than half of Canadians nationwide (55%) say they get it too. That includes 63% of men, 48% of women, and a whopping 77% of Conservative voters. Even 48% of Liberal voters admit they understand the motivation, even if they don't agree with it.
Now here's the kicker: 47% of Albertans say they support separation outright. That's not a sliver. That’s almost half the province. And when Danielle Smith says separatists aren't fringe—she’s right. She just tabled legislation to make citizen-initiated referendums easier, including ones on independence. Because she knows: this issue isn't going away. It's growing.
What this by-election showed us is that people are serious about autonomy, but they're being strategic about how to get it. They don't want to throw away a vote on a protest party if it means handing more power to Nenshi or Mark Carney. They want leverage, not virtue signalling. A movement, not a splinter group.
So no—this wasn't the end of the road. It was a fork in it. And the question now isn't if Alberta will push back harder against Confederation. The only question is how.
Will it be through a political party? A constitutional negotiation? A full-scale referendum?
That's still taking shape.
But make no mistake—the frustration, the drive for respect, and the fight for Alberta's future? It's alive. It's growing. And it's about to get a lot louder.
GUEST: Lorne Gunter, senior political columnist at the Edmonton Sun.
COMMENTS
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Bernhard Jatzeck commented 2025-06-25 21:01:07 -0400What the results mean for me personally is another several years with a Dipper as an MLA. I live in Edmonton Strathcona, a riding in which the NDP could run a department store mannequin as a candidate and it’ll still be elected with an overwhelming majority. -
Bruce Atchison commented 2025-06-25 20:48:22 -0400Danielle Smith’s smart Alberta Next move will backfire on the leftists. They can’t say Smith is acting like a queen. She will have the backing, the democratic backing, of Albertans. Smith learns from her mistakes. The left never do. Remember this: right is right and left is WRONG!
