The 25 per cent Ottawa can't ignore after Alberta's referendum vote
Albertans voted three to one to stay in Canada, and one in four voted to start the process of leaving, after a year in which every party, every former premier and the Prime Minister himself campaigned against them. Here’s why that 25 per cent is now the most important number in Canadian politics.
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Article by Rebel News staff.
Tonight on The Ezra Levant Show: Alberta voted three to one to stay in Canada, but the number that matters is the one in four who voted to start leaving, a bloc that every party, every former Premier and the Prime Minister himself spent a year trying to shrink, and could not.
On the unofficial count posted by Elections Alberta the morning after the Oct. 19 vote, with about 81 per cent of voting areas reporting, 75.5 per cent of valid votes on Question 10 chose to remain a province of Canada. The other 24.5 per cent, more than 450,000 people, voted for the provincial government to start the legal process required under the Constitution toward a binding referendum on separation. A later count, with 84 per cent of areas reporting, put the split at 75 to 25. Official results will be certified on Oct. 29, and the question is not legally binding.
That 25 per cent is where the independence side polled for nearly the whole campaign: in the twenties, reaching the low thirties at most and never falling below 20. It finished about where it started, which is the striking part given what was arrayed against it.
Thomas Lukaszuk's Forever Canadian reported $0.00 to Elections Alberta for 15 consecutive weeks. Vote to Stay brought in Jason Kenney, Monte Solberg and Tyler Shandro. A Canadian Chamber of Commerce campaign was co-chaired by Kenney and Rachel Notley. The UCP, the NDP and the federal Conservatives all opposed the separation option, and Prime Minister Mark Carney spent two days in the province urging voters to say "No to the Nine."
The other side had no party with a seat in the legislature and no get-out-the-vote machine. It relied on volunteer groups such as Keith Wilson's Let Alberta Decide and Sheila Gunn Reid's Alberta's Choice, where 78 per cent of donations were $250 or less. Holding a quarter of the vote under those conditions is a feat, and the structure of the ballot suggests it is a floor rather than a ceiling. Voters faced a muddled two-step question, forced on the province after Justice Shaina Leonard threw out the citizens' petition in May.
The results Ottawa is less eager to discuss came on the other nine questions. On the latest unofficial count, Yes leads on at least seven: more provincial control over immigration, provincially funded programs reserved for citizens and permanent residents, a 12-month residency wait before non-permanent residents qualify for social supports, fees for non-permanent residents' use of health care and education, proof of citizenship to vote, which drew the highest Yes share at about 63 per cent, provinces choosing their own superior court judges, and abolishing the Senate. No leads by about three points on Question 8, which would let provinces opt out of federal programs while keeping the funding. Question 9, on giving provincial laws priority over federal laws in shared areas of jurisdiction, is too close to call at about 50.6 per cent Yes to 49.4 per cent No. Carney campaigned against all nine, and on the current count voters are backing most of them.
The reaction has spread beyond Alberta. Éric Duhaime, leader of the Conservative Party of Quebec, said Tuesday that Quebecers should align with Albertans to build leverage inside the federation, and that the new Parti Québécois Premier should drop his sovereignty referendum and make common cause with Alberta instead.
Much of the commentary the morning after was dismissive. Columnist Gary Mason wrote of "grifters and charlatans," a Globe and Mail editorial spoke of "betrayal," James Moore told separatists to "sit down," and Carney reduced the 25 per cent to a "hard core."
The campaign also produced an accountability fight over money. When Elections Alberta sat on a Rebel News complaint about Forever Canadian's finances, Rebel News sued. Eleven days later, Lukaszuk announced his campaign would begin reporting its money.
The case made by the referendum's supporters is that the roughly 450,000 voters who chose to start the process are overwhelmingly federal Conservative and UCP supporters, a bloc rather than a fringe, and one that Premier Danielle Smith and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will have to reckon with as the count is finalized.
GUEST: Cory Morgan on the Alberta referendum
COMMENTS
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Bernhard Jatzeck commented 2026-10-20 21:24:05 -0400 FlagMr. Purvis: it’s not a question of “if” but “when” and “how much”. Alberta’s gonna hurt bad for its audacity. -
Bruce Atchison commented 2026-10-20 21:09:15 -0400 FlagI’m sad that so many seniors fell for Project Fear. My senior friends on the bus last Thursday were all in favour of staying in Canada. I was the only dissenter. They watch TV but I don’t. So they were panicked by this fear porn about leaving. Ignorance is a formidible enemy but it can be eventually defeated.
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Jerry Purvis commented 2026-10-20 20:50:27 -0400 FlagJust a random thought, but do you think PM Carney and his Ottawa cabal might inflict some major payback on Alberta for their uppity attitude? The scene could look something like Oliver Twist asking for more gruel.
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Bernhard Jatzeck commented 2026-10-20 20:24:25 -0400 Flag“Ottawa can’t ignore”? You bet it won’t. It’ll remember and punish Alberta for it.
Then again, we shouldn’t be surprised at that. It started with PET after the 1972 election. Alberta had the audacity to chuck out the Liberals that were elected in 1968 and which helped give him his first majority. That could never be tolerated and he penalized the province for it ever since.
