In an extended column for the CBC, Jason Markusoff implies that the tariff situation with the United States could be boosting the independence movement in Alberta. To be fair, Markusoff does say that if it is having an impact, it is inadvertent rather than purposeful. A refreshing break from the oft-repeated myth that the Trump administration is intentionally driving wedges between Alberta and Canada.

But are the tariffs increasing support for the independence movement?

That’s unlikely.

Markusoff points out how the tariffs aren’t having as drastic an impact on the Alberta economy because there are exemptions for energy and agricultural products. While this is true, it doesn’t mean it increases support for provincial independence. In fact, if tariffs were heavily applied to Alberta’s products, it probably would increase support for provincial independence rather than hinder it.

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If a heavy tariff were applied to Alberta’s oil, it would seriously impact the provincial economy and quickly. The reason it would be so devastating would be due to Alberta’s exports going nearly exclusively South of the border, and Albertans are well aware of this. Despite decades of efforts to gain pipeline access to the West and East coasts, Alberta has been stymied by obstructive policies from Ottawa. The best shield the province could have from American tariffs on oil is to have a diverse customer market. If the USA were to add punitive tariffs on Alberta’s products, the ire of Albertans would be directed at Ottawa, not the Americans.

Also, hard economic times make people more receptive to more radical policy changes. When people have things good, they are less inclined to rock the boat. That’s why boomers with their mortgages paid off are less inclined to support provincial independence, while younger people struggling to become established are increasingly embracing it. If Alberta were driven into recession, citizens would be less endeared with the status quo offered by federalism.

Just as when oil prices have hit the basement in past years, if tariffs rocked Alberta’s economy, the province would quickly learn that Canada offers no favours during tough times. Somehow, the equalization formula ensures that Alberta never receives it, no matter how tough the times may become. Acutely reminding them of it again would encourage more to vote to break free.

Alberta may be having an easier time with tariffs than other parts of the country, but it all comes down to economics rather than any unfairness or southern conspiracy to turn the province into the 51st state. While Trump may want to shake up the world, he also understands that causing even higher domestic energy prices through tariffing Canadian oil products would be poorly received by voters. The same can be said for food prices if he went after Canadian agricultural products.

The roots of Western alienation run deeper than immediate economic concerns. The relationship with the United States is rocky right now and contributes to national instability. The tariff situation is neither feeding nor satiating the appetite for independence in Alberta.