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A recent Canadian intelligence report concluded that anti-Israel university encampments were “unlikely” to turn violent, contradicting claims from a former CSIS analyst.

In May 2024, the spy agency’s Integrated Threat Assessment Centre reported on potential terrorist/extremist activity at anti-Israel university camps across Canada, mirroring a U.S. movement.

CSIS found that while "acts of civil disobedience, perceived and real antisemitic messaging, and perceived and real expressions of support for violent extremist organizations" were present, the camps were "not likely" to incite violence or serve as recruitment grounds for extremist groups.

Meanwhile, Canada's spy agency claimed ideologically motivated extremist groups, including the “far-right,” were exploiting antisemitism to recruit and incite violence.

Released under access to information law, the document states that extremist groups are exploiting events like the Israel-Hamas war to gain support.

"Ideologically Motivated Violent Extremists routinely weave antisemitic commentary into their narratives in order to inspire violence and recruit individuals," it states, noting social media as "the primary channel" for consuming such content.

The agency notes Ideologically Motivated Violent Extremist (IMVE) and Religiously Motivated Violent Extremist (RMVE) groups, such as those that support Al-Qaida or ISIS, are distinct.

However, it claims that anti-Israel protests and university encampments "are unlikely to lead to or be staging grounds for violent extremist acts."

Phil Gurski, a former CSIS analyst, told CBC News there have been several arrests of Islamist-inspired groups or individuals planning attacks in Canada. "We've had virtually no arrests on the far right," he said.

CSIS, in a June briefing, informed the public safety minister that campus intimidation tactics would persist but likely not escalate to serious violence. This contradicts concerns from university and federal officials, who urged dismantling encampments, pressuring universities to divest from Israel.

After terrorist imagery appeared in June 2024, then-Immigration Minister Marc Miller urged the dismantling of the McGill University encampment. The following month, private security cleared the camp, with President Deep Saini stating it was "a heavily fortified focal point for intimidation and violence."

CSIS reports show a surge in Canadian protests, antisemitic graffiti, and demonstrations since the October 2023 Hamas attack and Gaza war. Despite occasional clashes and isolated violent acts, these protests have been overwhelmingly peaceful.

Gurski, who admits there is an increase in online rhetoric, says the "vast, vast majority of people who say anything online, never do a damn thing. They talk the talk, they don't walk the walk."

Barbara Perry of Ontario Tech University's Centre on Hate, Bias and Extremism told CBC that the "far-right" fosters anti-Muslim, anti-Arab, and antisemitic views, exploiting the Gaza situation for their aims.

"Clearly it was antisemitic but what exactly were the motivations? Did it come from the left? Did it come from the right? Does it come from Muslim-affiliated or Islamic-inspired extremists?” Perry posed. “We just have no way of knowing with those kinds of events."

Though antisemitism levels in Canada are hard to pinpoint, according to the 2024 CSIS report, police-reported hate incidents targeting Jewish and Arab/Muslim communities have increased since October 7, 2023.

In 2024, religiously motivated hate crimes numbered 1,343. Those targeting the Jewish community comprised 920 (68%), while Muslim Canadians were targeted in 229 reports, up from 220 in 2023 and 109 in 2022.