Fact Check: Will Quebec’s election results impact the referendum being held in Alberta?
It is now abundantly clear that the federation is strained, with provinces pushing back against the federal government in Ottawa.
Quebec overwhelmingly voted for change by obliterating the party in power and reducing it to zero seats while giving the Parti Québécois (PQ) a strong minority government. It indicates a sea change in voter sentiment, but is that reflected on the other side of the country as Alberta faces a referendum with an independence-leaning question on the ballot?
Quebec’s vote changes the political atmosphere in Canada. Federalists can no longer pretend that it’s just some crabby, loud upstarts at the root of Alberta’s independence movement. The federation is strained and is showing cracks from East to West. The reasons for Quebec’s ire may differ from many of Alberta’s, but they share a view of seeing Ottawa as the root of problems and are working to remove themselves from its authority.
Prime Minister Mark Carney now has a sovereigntist government in Quebec and a vote on moving toward independence being held in Alberta in the same month. His response to Quebec’s choice will have to be carefully crafted to avoid showing the usual double standard when dealing with sovereigntist movements in the provinces.
Premier-elect St-Pierre Plamondon has promised a third referendum on independence in a first mandate, but not before Donald Trump leaves office on January 20, 2029. A minority government also means he cannot force a referendum law or a campaign budget without opposition votes. In other words, Quebec didn’t offer a full mandate for provincial independence but chose to use the election to send Ottawa a message and moved closer toward a binding independence vote down the road. Albertan voters are facing the same sort of choice as the referendum looms.
The election of the PQ in Quebec indicates Canada’s federation isn’t stable and that provinces are pushing back against central governance in Ottawa. This could inspire more Albertans to choose Option 2 on Question 10 on October 19. The PQ minority win raises the national-unity temperature and gives Alberta campaigners a timely reference point.
The Quebec election results will have an impact on voter choices in Alberta, but it will be impossible to measure how much.
Cory Morgan
Cory Morgan is an Alberta-based columnist, political commentator, and longtime advocate for Western Canadian independence. He is the author of the recently updated book The Sovereigntist’s Handbook, a grassroots guide for independence supporters and political activists.
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