University of Alberta political scientist Jared Wesley claimed on X, “95% of separatist concerns disappear under a Conservative Party government in Ottawa.”

Independence sentiment has been brewing in Western Canada for generations and has sustained itself through multiple conservative governments. The roots of the movement are much deeper than discontent over the party in power.

If anything, federal Conservative governments have created more true, hardcore, Western independence supporters than Liberal governments have. Westerners expect Liberal governments to disregard their interests in favour of Central Canada. When Conservative governments do it, more Westerners understand that it’s the system that’s broken. The party in power has little to do with the fundamental problem.

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Westerners breathed a sigh of relief when Brian Mulroney was elected as prime minister, and the era of Pierre Trudeau had finally come to an end. Mulroney then proceeded to drag his heels on repealing the National Energy Program until it best served Eastern Canada, and slapped Manitobans in the face when he gave a CF-18 maintenance contract to a Quebec contractor despite the Eastern bid being clearly inferior. The actions spawned the Reform Party, which gave independence supporters a false hope of getting “in” but led to no systemic change.

When conservatives got into power again under Stephen Harper, many Westerners thought change was pending. Surely one of the authors of the Alberta Agenda would fix things, right?

As soon as Harper ascended to the prime ministerial seat, all talk of the Alberta Agenda vanished. The equalization formula was renewed with terms as bad for the West as ever, and discussions over Senate or judicial reform fell off the table. The Harper government was less bad to the West than Liberal governments have been. But it changed nothing of significance.

The foundation of the independence movement is based upon individual freedoms, equitable regional representation in Ottawa and economic sovereignty for the provinces. None of these things will happen without changing the Canadian system, and Westerners understand that Canada has no interest in changing its system.

If the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) were to win the government, it would mean it pandered heavily to Central Canada to do so. That’s not speculation. That’s math. Some independence sentiment could cool if the CPC won a majority government, but it would soon flare up even more strongly as more Westerners realize the new government would change nothing of substance. Liberal governments inflame Western alienation. Conservative governments turn the alienation into independence support by demonstrating the futility of working within the system.