If a majority of Albertans choose Option 1 on Question 10 on October 19th, it would slow the progression toward provincial independence, but it wouldn’t end it. The Scottish example demonstrates that a federalist win isn’t enough to quell independence support. Only systematic changes can do that.

In 2014, citizens of Scotland voted in a referendum to maintain the status quo, with a narrow margin of 55% choosing to remain in the UK. Since then, efforts to hold another referendum have been stymied by the UK. Pro-independence parties have dominated the Scottish parliament with the Scottish National Party (SNP) winning its fifth successive election last May, albeit with a minority. The Scottish Greens hold the balance of power, and they maintain a pro-Scottish independence mandate as well. Both parties have been working to try and invoke another independence referendum.

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The Scottish Parliament cannot hold another independence referendum without the UK Parliament passing legislation to enable this. The UK won’t facilitate another referendum since polled support for independence has been near or above 50% in Scotland over the last few years. The pressure between the UK and Scottish parliaments is now building more than ever. Risks of more unilateral Scottish movement toward independence are growing.

The moral of the story?

A referendum loss can slow an independence movement down, but unless the underlying issues that created the independence movement in the first place are addressed, the movement will continue to grow.

If federalists truly want to see Alberta’s independence movement coming to an end, they must begin working on changing the Canadian system. Otherwise, the movement will continue to grow until winning conditions in a referendum are met. And the Alberta movement has been growing quickly of late.