Premier Danielle Smith says a costing document on Alberta separation could be released by August, and she's already previewing the number she wants Albertans to fixate on: hundreds of billions of dollars in startup costs.

On Wednesday's Buffalo Roundtable, hosts Sheila Gunn Reid and Lise Merle were joined by Jeff Rath of the Alberta Prosperity Project to dig into the premier's framing — and her declaration that a “remain” win in October's referendum would be the final word on independence.

“Why is the remain side the final say?” Sheila asked, as Jeff made a blunt prediction that even if Albertans vote in favour of holding a formal referendum, Smith will not call one before the 2027 election.

“She will not do it regardless of everything else,” Jeff declared.

Lise pushed back on Premier Smith's framing of the costs, arguing Alberta isn't building a country from scratch. “Let's ask any of the former Soviet states if they're happy with running their own show now or if they would rather still have Moscow calling the shots,” she said.

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Sheila pointed out how many of the services Premier Smith listed as prohibitive are things Quebec is already running on its own, adding that Albertans “are as capable as Quebecers to manage our own affairs in this way.”

Alberta could also offer the same services but better run and at a cheaper cost, she added.

Jeff cited a document drafted by the Alberta Prosperity Project, which suggests the actual transition cost is closer to $6 billion, which he said was “completely in line” with studies done on Quebec and Scottish independence.

Even if the cost were in the hundreds of millions, “that is a bargain to get Alberta out of Canada,” he said, asserting the province has trillions of dollars' worth of oil and gas.

The Buffalo Roundtable, where weekly guests join Rebel News hosts to discuss the top issues facing Western Canada, airs live every Wednesday at 11 a.m. MT / 1 p.m. ET.