An Alberta pollster indicates rising separatist sentiment is politically benefiting Premier Danielle Smith, who holds a commanding 14-point lead over the NDP.

A Janet Brown poll showed strong approval for Smith, with the UCP sitting at 53% province-wide among decided voters. The NDP trails at just 39% under Naheed Nenshi’s leadership.

Brown told the National Post that Smith's perceived strength in dealing with Ottawa is contributing to her increased popularity.

ALBERTA ACCORD: Premier Smith announces she will be appointing a special negotiating team to discuss critical reforms for the province with the federal government. pic.twitter.com/YF6Jr1wgRm

— Rebel News (@RebelNewsOnline) May 5, 2025

In a livestream last month, Premier Smith addressed Albertans frustrated with the province's treatment within Canada but who still believe in a successful future for Alberta within a united Canada, mirroring Smith's own feelings.

Despite challenges, she polls strongly with Albertans who identify as Canadian but feel unfairly treated by Ottawa. Albertans are divided on their primary identity, with 32% identifying most with Alberta, 34% more with Canada, and 33% equally with both.

“They don’t necessarily want to separate, but they don’t want the status quo either… and the NDP hasn’t really been speaking to this group,” said Brown.

Nenshi, a strong federalist, has strongly criticized Smith, accusing her of "stupid separatist games" and labeling Alberta separatism an "extremist fringe agenda." He dismissed unfavourable poll numbers by referencing a purportedly biased, unweighted Environics poll showing the NDP in the lead.

Naresh Bhardwaj, UCP Candidate for Edmonton-Ellerslie, stated the poll confirms Albertans trust them to cut taxes, ensure safety, and advocate for Alberta. “While the NDP remains focused on its activist base, we’re focused on delivering results for families.”

Though Premier Danielle Smith does not endorse separation, a newly tabled bill makes citizen-initiated referendum on leaving Canada feasible.

MORE by @WestCdnFirst: https://t.co/O0CbiegS8y pic.twitter.com/jM9UY0KBnD

— Rebel News Canada (@RebelNews_CA) May 1, 2025

The results align with a May 2025 Angus Reid poll, indicating that roughly half of respondents in Alberta would support an independence referendum, with 36% favoring separation from Canada.

“These numbers are stunning, particularly since there is currently no charismatic leader or well-organized movement advancing separatism,” according to a MacDonald-Laurier Institute column. Separatist sentiment is simply based on a widespread exasperation with the status quo.”

“Politically it cannot be ignored,” argues columnists Sonya Savage and Heather Exner-Pirot, who cite a majority (65%) of UCP voters support leaving Canada.

The anger stems from Ottawa's decade-long legislative and regulatory agenda that encroached on provincial jurisdiction and specifically targeted the oil and gas industry, a key source of the region's wealth.

“A new federal government should recognize the resentment in Western Canada stemming from Ottawa's overreaching climate and environmental laws, which have harmed Alberta’s economy,” according to Savage and Exner-Pirot.

Danielle Smith responds to Mark Carney mocking her during a campaign event in Victoria, B.C.

"The attitude is 'sit down and shut up.' Well I don't shut up, I make sure Albertans know exactly how I feel about issues," the premier says. pic.twitter.com/sGOyNnXkrp

— Rebel News (@RebelNewsOnline) April 7, 2025

Brown notes that Albertans are reserving judgment on Prime Minister Carney, waiting to see if he can reach a national unity agreement with Smith.

“Albertans tend to have a fairly positive impression of Carney, considering how few voted for [the Liberals],” Brown claimed.

Smith and Carney will meet at Tuesday's first ministers' meeting in Saskatoon, the first in decades. The prime minister has asked premiers for lists of infrastructure projects for potential fast-tracking.

Brown’s poll, conducted between May 7 and 21 with a random sample of 1,200 Albertans, indicates the UCP is ahead across all age groups and projected to win a 17-seat majority in the next provincial election if current support persists.

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