An infographic from University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe has been making the rounds — and it tells a story the loudest voices in Canada's trade war debate probably don't want told.

The provinces absorbing the heaviest tariff hits from Trump's 50% round are the same provinces whose premiers have been the most aggressively anti-American. Ontario's auto sector, Quebec's dairy and maple syrup, British Columbia's softwood lumber.

There's a lot of variation across #cdnecon in exposure to the new 50% U.S. tariffs (on August 19). Here's a preliminary estimate of the share of exports affected (based on HS6, so a slight over-estimate). BC/ON/QC most exposed. Others far less so. pic.twitter.com/SMSWOuMBUj

— Trevor Tombe (@trevortombe) July 21, 2026

Meanwhile, Alberta and Saskatchewan, provinces whose premiers took a quieter, more pragmatic approach, are sitting at 97% tariff-free trade with the United States.

Sheila Gunn Reid and Lise Merle reacted to the varying approaches and their results on Thursday's Rebel Roundup livestream.

"The people who are most vocal are getting hammered," Sheila said. She noted that Doug Ford, who has now compared Donald Trump to a "rabid dog," is presiding over an auto sector about to absorb the consequences of that rhetoric.

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"I actually can't wait for this to come back directly on Doug Ford," she said, slamming the Ontario premier before adding the caveat that the workers in the auto sector, who largely voted Conservative in the last election, are the ones who will actually pay the price. 

"Regular people who work in the auto sector are just going to get destroyed over this," she said. "And it's not helpful."

Both hosts also noted the absurdity of Ford and Carney declining to travel to Washington to address the situation directly.

"I have a longer drive to get coffee cream when I run out than these people have to spend on a flight to go sort this out," Sheila said. Lise suggested they try typing "the White House" into Google Maps. "It'll get you there," she said.

Danielle Smith, asked what she expects from Carney over the next 28 days, said Alberta has so far had 97% of its goods cross the border tariff-free and wants to get that to 100% — along with a comprehensive deal covering autos, steel, softwood, and aluminum.

"Tariffs don't help anyone," the premier said. "They hurt Canadian consumers. They hurt American consumers."

Sheila noted the implicit message in Smith's remarks. "That was a shot at her fellow premiers," she said. "She mentioned the soft lumber, the aluminum, the auto sector — all by name."

Rebel Roundup airs Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday at 11 a.m. MT / 1 p.m. ET.