If a majority of Albertans choose Option 2 on Question 10 in the referendum this fall, what will happen on October 20? In short, nothing. In the long run, though, it could mean everything.

The question facing Albertans in the referendum calls for the government to begin the process to hold a binding referendum on independence. It does not compel the government to act. Legislation explicitly states the referendum is non-binding.

No policies will be changed, nor will any negotiations with the rest of Canada begin. Federalists implying the sky may fall if Albertans choose Option 2 are exaggerating consequences, to say the least.

Question 10 states: Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?

• Option 1: Alberta should remain a province of Canada.
• Option 2: The Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.

Premier Danielle Smith has repeatedly said she will respect the outcome of all referendum questions. Assuming a positive vote for Option 2 and that the premier acts in good faith, a process will begin.

The first hurdle to overcome will be the legal appeal over the recent court injunction applied against holding a binding vote on independence. It must be determined how much consultation is required with Indigenous groups (if possible), and the consultation process must begin.

A Clarity Act-compliant question must then be formulated and a binding referendum on that question will be scheduled. This is where politics will likely come into play.

Even if the process was somehow fast-tracked, the provincial government will not be inclined to hold such a referendum during the same year it faces a general election. Especially since ongoing court challenges will push the possible scheduling well into 2027. They likely will find ways to defer it until 2028.

With such long timelines, markets likely won’t react adversely to a positive vote for Option 2 in October. The oil and gas will not have gone anywhere, and all trade agreements are the same. In fact, they may even react positively as Ottawa may suddenly be more receptive to facilitating real economic development rather than an endless series of MOUs.

Tensions between Ottawa and Alberta may also intensify, though, depending on national reaction to the outcome of the vote.

A solid vote in favour of Option 2 on Question 10 will send a strong message to both Ottawa and Edmonton. It would indicate the citizenry is fed up with the status quo and is demanding change. The clock would begin ticking as the provincial government would have been given a mandate to hold a binding referendum on independence, and citizens will not tolerate too much deferral on the issue.

The day after the vote on October 19 will be like any other day. A year or two after the vote, Alberta could be facing a whole new future.

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