In a CBC article imagining trade in a post-secession scenario, University of Alberta law professor Andrew Leach implied the rest of Canada could move toward sourcing its oil and gas supplies from other countries if Alberta became independent.

While this is technically true, the transportation network for oil and gas in North America wouldn’t change at all in the short term and is unlikely to change dramatically in the long term even if Alberta becomes a new country.

Economics and geography tend to trump political differences when a country is sourcing energy supplies. That’s why Canada shunned expanding Alberta’s pipeline network eastward for generations. 

Despite the added security of increasing the consumption of energy from domestic sources and the economic benefit it would bring to Alberta by facilitating more Western Canadian oil and gas pipelines to Eastern Canada, the nation found it to be cheaper simply to dismiss Alberta’s oil and gas and to buy from foreign sources.

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In other words, Canada is already sourcing foreign oil and gas whenever it’s convenient. Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and even Colombia have sent hundreds of millions of barrels of oil by tanker to Eastern Canada over the years.

Canada has hardly demonstrated a concern about sourcing energy from countries with less than stellar human rights records when it can save a few bucks. On top of that, Canada imports massive amounts of natural gas and oil from the United States.

So, let’s not pretend that being within the federation presents Alberta with some sort of economic loyalty from the rest of the country.

Most of the oil Alberta sends to Eastern Canada passes through the United States before it reaches Eastern Canada. That pipeline network may be at risk due to environmental rumblings from the state of Michigan. Further dependence upon energy coming from the south may not be in Canada’s best interest.

Professor Leach is simply practicing the same tired old fear tactics we have become used to. He implies that Canada would embargo Alberta’s oil and gas exports if the province became independent. 

In reality, the network of oil and gas infrastructure between Alberta, Canada and the United States is far too integrated to meddle with without causing economic havoc and energy shortages in Eastern regions. Canada could increase tanker traffic to offset Alberta oil further, but it would need to rebuild its refining and distribution infrastructure to deal with that.

At the glacial speed Canada moves with such projects, it would be decades before the country weaned itself from Alberta’s oil, even if it tried. They also would need to tap into Albertan labour to find the skills to construct such infrastructure.

Most of Eastern Canada’s natural gas comes from the USA already, and they can’t bring any in by LNG because they have refused to build sizeable LNG terminals.

Canada will not let itself freeze in the dark on a point of principle to spite an independent Alberta.