Toronto-based lawyer Lawrence Herman implies in a Globe and Mail column that it would be catastrophic for Alberta to have to try and cut new deals from scratch if it became independent. This is grossly exaggerated.

To begin with, dozens of new countries have come into being around the world, and they all have managed to create their own trade agreements. It’s not unprecedented, and the formula for setting up new countries is already drafted. Alberta would not be reinventing the wheel.

If the time comes when a majority of Albertans vote in a Clarity Act-compliant, binding referendum on independence, it won’t break the province free from the federation immediately. Trade agreements wouldn’t cease to exist as if a light switch had been flicked. The negotiation process in general would begin, which would likely take well over a year before the province fully extricates itself from the federation. That period would be used to draft new trade agreements with foreign partners, and there is little reason to think they wouldn’t want to participate.

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Alberta holds resources that the world wants, and let’s not pretend that B.C. or Canada would embargo the exports of oil and gas out of spite. That would lead to a trade war, which would be far more damaging than the current one with the USA, as Canadian products are blocked from crossing the prairie. Such a standoff would be resolved within days if indeed it ever happened. There is a mutual interest in making trade deals. If Canada truly is that spiteful, it only illustrates the case for independence further.

We also can’t pretend that Canada has been offering productive trade clout already. The ongoing tariff nightmare feels as if it has no end as Carney continues to bend to demands and President Trump shakes him like a pit bull with a rag doll. It’s hard to imagine an independent Alberta negotiating more poorly with its southern partner than Canada has been.

Taking part in the World Trade Organization isn’t difficult. Over 30 countries have become members in recent years, and it provides a base for an independent Alberta to have diplomats meet with and arrange trade deals with other countries. An independent Alberta would enter this system with significant advantages most new states lack: a high-income economy, sophisticated institutions already aligned with North American and WTO norms, an educated workforce, and massive oil and gas reserves that the United States (and others) actively need.

Trade agreements are simply contracts, and there’s no reason to believe an independent Alberta couldn’t manage them. Yes, there would be some instability during a transition period when the province leaves the federation. Trade deals aren’t insurmountable obstacles, though, and they would be negotiated quickly.