Premier Danielle Smith stated at a UCP town hall meeting in Lethbridge if a majority of voters choose Option 2 on Question 10 in this fall’s referendum, a binding referendum on independence could be held by next spring.

Option 2 doesn’t offer a timeline but says: “the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.”

The legal process has two large hurdles currently that may not be cleared in time for spring 2027. Gerard Kennedy, an associate professor in the faculty of law at the University of Alberta, laid them out in a radio interview with Courtney Theriault and called the proposed timeline “ambitious”.

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The court appeal regarding consultation with Indigenous groups over the petitioning process has yet to be resolved. Guessing at timelines within the judicial system is dicey at best. The provincial government could begin a consultation process without the court ruling, though. Smith figured it would take 2.5 months. Again, Kennedy used the term “ambitious” when speaking of that projection. 

The issue with consultation is rarely whether or not it has been done, but rather over whether enough consultation has been done. With some Indigenous bands, it will never be enough. Consent is not required of the bands, but a legitimate effort to include them in consultation is expected. The provincial government would have to show some strong backbone to set a hard timeline for the process.

Then there is the interpretation of the Clarity Act requiring parliamentary approval of the question to be asked. The question should be straightforward, and there wouldn’t be a valid reason for the rejection of it. But Ottawa politicians won’t let that stop them from potentially running interference. Kennedy noted that the Clarity Act per se isn’t constitutional. He said it would be prudent for the Alberta government to seek federal approval.

In the uncharted waters of holding a referendum under the Clarity Act, a clear question on independence could be posed by the provincial government regardless of federal or Indigenous consent. Rest assured, when Quebec holds its next referendum, it won't be asking anybody else's permission on the matter.

An independence referendum could be scheduled for spring 2027, but it would take a great deal of political will on the part of the provincial government. Smith may have put out that timeline to pacify impatient independence supporters but could be assuming a loss for Option 2 in this fall’s referendum. If Option 2 does pass, she has cornered herself.

The spring timeline is likely based more on political prudence for the UCP than anything else. With a provincial election scheduled for fall 2027, the UCP won’t want a pending independence referendum hanging over the campaign. It would be better to rip the Band-Aid off six months prior so the issue is somewhat resolved before running for re-election. The faster timeline may also hinder the independence campaigners, who may not be well organized enough yet to campaign in a binding referendum.