Fact Check: Is referendum 'uncertainty' wrecking Alberta’s economy?
ATB Financial's September economic outlook forecasts Alberta’s real GDP will grow 2.6% in 2026, compared with just 0.9% for Canada as a whole. That means Alberta is expected to grow at nearly three times the national rate this year.
For months, opponents of Alberta’s independence referendum have warned that merely putting the question to voters would frighten investors, destabilize the economy and put Alberta’s prosperity at risk.
With the October 19 referendum now only weeks away, we have something better than predictions: actual economic data.
tAnd Alberta is outperforming Canada.
ATB Financial's September economic outlook forecasts Alberta’s real GDP will grow 2.6% in 2026, compared with just 0.9% for Canada as a whole. That means Alberta is expected to grow at nearly three times the national rate this year.
The divergence is expected to continue. ATB forecasts Alberta growth of 2.3% in 2027, versus 1.5% nationally.
This isn’t limited to GDP.
ATB says Alberta is currently “far outpacing” the country across a broad range of economic indicators, including employment, population and retail sales growth. Alberta retail sales were up 9.7% year-over-year in July, almost double Canada's 5.1% increase.
Alberta has now recorded 20 consecutive quarters of net interprovincial migration, meaning more Canadians have moved into Alberta than left for five straight years.
Referendum opponents have specifically warned that political uncertainty could discourage people and investment from coming to Alberta. Earlier this year, economists and business representatives told Global News that referendum uncertainty could hurt investment, with one business considering moving operations outside Alberta.
ATB identifies some very different reasons for Alberta's relative strength: rising oil prices, increased energy production, improved market access, continuing interprovincial migration and Alberta's lower exposure to U.S. tariffs on sectors such as autos, steel and aluminum.
Even the Alberta government's latest forecast has been revised up, not down.
It now expects 2.3% real GDP growth in 2026, half a percentage point higher than its Budget 2026 forecast, citing stronger energy activity, manufacturing and agricultural exports, investment, construction, job growth and consumer spending.
Sheila Gunn Reid
Chief Reporter
Sheila Gunn Reid is the Editor-in-Chief, Alberta Bureau Chief, member of the board of directors, and host of The Gunn Show at Rebel News. Sheila also serves as President of the Independent Press Gallery of Canada. A mother of three and longtime conservative activist, Sheila is the author of bestselling books, including her most recent release, Independence Blueprint: What Alberta Can Learn From Quebec.
https://mybook.to/sheilaFeatured Stories
