Fact Check: Would independence cut Albertans’ purchasing power by 9.3%?
Professor Constantin Colonescu's model assumes new costs while giving comparatively little weight to the taxes, regulatory expenses and massive net fiscal transfers that Albertans would escape.
Vote to Stay says Albertans would suffer a 9.3% decline in purchasing power following independence. The number is not an economic forecast. It is the product of hypothetical costs selected for one academic model.
MacEwan University economics professor Constantin Colonescu acknowledges that his calculations are “estimates based on reasonable assumptions about future economic scenarios, not statistical forecasts.”
An economics professor at MacEwan University crunched the numbers. 🔢
— Vote to Stay (@VotetoStayAB) August 11, 2026
He estimates Albertans would have 9.3% LOWER purchasing power in an independent Alberta. 🤯
Don't let the separatists gamble away Alberta's prosperity. 🎲
Pledge your vote I https://t.co/orbO13zfAY pic.twitter.com/BA6b8zr10Q
One crucial assumption is that independence would increase trade and regulatory costs by 6%, with 30% of those costs passed to consumers. That assumption alone produces a projected 1.8% increase in consumer prices.
The model also credits independence with a fiscal dividend of just $850 per resident, despite a Library of Parliament analysis identifying Alberta as Canada’s largest net contributor to federal finances in 2024.
Albertans do not write cheques directly to the equalization program, but they send far more to Ottawa in federal taxes than Alberta receives through federal spending. Independence would allow that money to remain in Alberta, where a new government could use it to reduce personal taxes, eliminate federal carbon taxes and regulations, or fund services directly.
Lower taxes mean more money in Albertans’ jeans. More disposable income means greater purchasing power, not less.
The professor’s model assumes new costs while giving comparatively little weight to the taxes, regulatory expenses and massive net fiscal transfers that Albertans would escape. It also treats hypothetical border costs as losses without considering that Alberta could negotiate continued free trade, maintain a shared currency or strike new trade arrangements.
Even the author distinguishes between full independence and a sovereignty-association agreement maintaining close economic ties with Canada. Yet Vote to Stay presents the harshest scenario as an unavoidable outcome.
Sheila Gunn Reid
Chief Reporter
Sheila Gunn Reid is the Editor-in-Chief, Alberta Bureau Chief, member of the board of directors, and host of The Gunn Show at Rebel News. Sheila also serves as President of the Independent Press Gallery of Canada. A mother of three and longtime conservative activist, Sheila is the author of bestselling books, including her most recent release, Independence Blueprint: What Alberta Can Learn From Quebec.
https://mybook.to/sheilaFeatured Stories
