NDP candidate Kyle Campbell defeated UCP candidate Mike Derry in what had been considered a relatively safe seat for the UCP in a by-election. Some voices are blaming the upcoming referendum to be held on October 19 for the upset. The political disruption caused by a pending referendum vote impacted the by-election vote but not necessarily for the reasons some may think.

There is definitely a segment of traditional UCP supporters upset that a referendum that may set the province on a path to a binding independence vote that chose either to stay home on September 14th rather than vote or may have cast a protest vote with Peter Guthrie’s Progressive Tory Party. The Progressive Tories garnered nearly 1,000 votes, which could have tipped the balance for the UCP had they not been in play.

The nomination race for the UCP was hotly contested before the by-election, with Calgary councillor Dan McLean losing to Mike Derry. With such a short cooldown period since the by-election, some McLean supporters may have chosen not to vote.

On the other side of the coin, many committed Alberta independence supporters are upset with the UCP campaigning actively against Option 2 on Question 10 in the upcoming referendum. The recent announcement that the government was going to spend $4 million tax dollars to take a side against independence in the campaign enraged many of them. With no independence-leaning candidate to direct their support toward, many of them chose to remain home. Most of those disenchanted voters would likely have been prior UCP supporters.

The Liberal candidate in the race took nearly 4% of the vote. While that may sound insignificant, it is higher than provincial Liberals in Alberta have managed to garner in any race for years. Some of that can be attributed to parking a protest vote, though some of those votes could have come from the NDP base as well.

Turnout in by-elections is traditionally low, and Calgary-Shaw was no exception. In the 2023 general election, 63.5% of eligible voters cast ballots. In the recent by-election, 38% came out to vote. This makes by-elections vulnerable to swings and protest votes.

The Calgary-Shaw by-election was heavily impacted by the upcoming referendum vote, but it can’t be considered a bellwether for the referendum on independence itself. The referendum has created a volatile and divided electoral environment, and Premier Smith’s attempted balancing act has managed to alienate both independence supporters and non-independence supporters among her traditional base of support. Both sides expressed their discontent in Calgary-Shaw either by staying home or choosing an alternative candidate, which created the environment for an NDP win.