Alberta Fact Check: Is the October referendum simply a negotiating tool?
A large turnout in favour of the non-binding independence option would keep national unity questions front and centre for years, as the process toward a formal referendum continues to play out.
Retired economist William Marriott wrote an opinion piece in the Calgary Herald entitled: Alberta sovereignty: Officially give up? Why not negotiate instead?
He explores the notion of whether the upcoming referendum is a serious move toward provincial secession or if it is just a tool for Alberta to negotiate a better deal within the federation. The answer is yes to both concepts. It just depends on who you ask.
Marriott correctly points out the non-binding nature of the referendum. Even if the vast majority of Albertans choose Option 2 on Question 10, it doesn’t compel the provincial government to do anything.
Alberta’s place will remain exactly the same in the federation on October 20, and the timing for holding a truly binding referendum on independence would remain indeterminate.
People choosing Option 2 will be motivated by one of two reasons. There will be the truly dedicated supporters of independence who see the vote as a path to secession. Then there will be people who want to use the vote to send a message to Ottawa. They want to use the referendum as a warning shot but do not and may never want to see the province leave the federation.
The two camps share common ground and can vote risk-free in the referendum this fall.
A large turnout for Option 2 would send shockwaves through the country and would keep unity on top of the news scroll for years to come. The UCP would be unlikely to schedule a Clarity Act-compliant referendum on independence before the next general election but would likely be compelled to do so shortly afterward.
Then the factions of Albertans would truly have it out. Hardcore independence supporters would have to convince people to vote for a binding referendum while those who only want to send a message would have to convince voters a deal can be had.
Opponents to choosing Option 2 want to frame the vote on October 19 as if it were a binding independence referendum. The choice this fall won’t be based on a binary interest on the part of voters. People can choose Option 2 for several potential reasons.
So, is the referendum just a tool for negotiation? Maybe.
Cory Morgan
Cory Morgan is an Alberta-based columnist, political commentator, and longtime advocate for Western Canadian independence. He is the author of the recently updated book The Sovereigntist’s Handbook, a grassroots guide for independence supporters and political activists.
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