B.C. college instructor Sam Viavant penned an opinion piece for the Edmonton Journal entitled “Alberta separation would be devastating to the oil industry.” He doesn’t make an economic-based argument as much as a fear-based one.

His case is made under the presumption that Alberta would formally join or have a very binding formal union with the United States. There has been no indication of a realistic movement within Alberta trying to join the USA, nor is there any interest being shown on the part of the USA in annexing Alberta. We have already debunked those claims here.

That didn’t stop Mr. Viavant from going down a fear-mongering rabbit hole with statements such as “And if Alberta regretted becoming American, Washington would be sterner than Ottawa. Canada let Quebec vote on leaving, and it’s letting Alberta hold its own referendum. But when the American South seceded, the US went to war.”

He is imagining a world where Alberta has joined the USA, then doesn’t like the oil deal with the new nation, then may have to go to war to get out of the deal. It is a bizarre work of fiction predicting events that aren’t happening.

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On the oil front, Viavant assumes Canada would be hostile and would impose punitive tolls on Alberta oil exports. Considering Canada has regulated energy to the point where the only pipelines being approved now are nationalized ones, it’s unlikely the scenario would get worse upon independence.

In fact, an independent Alberta would have much more leverage in negotiating access for trade goods both ways with Canada. B.C. would likely prefer to keep rail access across Alberta, for example. Negotiating mutually beneficial agreements would be relatively easy when a now-split nation is seeking stability.

Viavant then makes a weak claim that Canada itself makes Alberta’s oil industry stronger. Even RBC made it clear that hundreds of billions of dollars have been driven from the energy sector due to Canada’s regulations and taxes. Carbon taxes, oil production caps, slow pipeline approvals, and equalization have damaged investment and jobs in Alberta for decades.

Oil and gas are commodities in high demand around the world. The companies producing and selling those products don’t care which nation they operate within. They will just as happily deal with an independent Alberta as they do with the current Alberta. In fact, they likely would enjoy the change in the regulatory environment.

There will be economic instability and some short-term investment chill if Alberta becomes independent, as new agreements and structures are put in place. In the long run, though, while the borders may change, the presence of some of the world’s largest oil and gas reserves within Alberta doesn’t. The industry won’t be devastated by any measure.