The Calgary Herald published an op-ed with a focus on understanding the ravaging of Alberta by federal policies by Andrew Kemle, the Government and External Relations Manager at Graduate Students’ Association at the University of Calgary.

An RBC report released in May of this year laid out how over a trillion dollars in capital has fled Canada in the last decade due to restrictive federal policies.

Kemle references the report, but tries to shift the blame to American tariffs rather than domestic policies causing the investment dearth. The tariff issue has only been a factor for a little more than a year. The strangulation of Western Canadian conventional energy development has been happening for well over 10 years. It’s a weak deflection to say the least.

He also notes that while Canada’s GDP per capita is lagging behind the U.S., the Canadian quality of life is better. Perhaps if folks don’t travel South of the border often, they may feel that way. A quick trip to Houston can quickly remedy that misconception. The quality of life is just fine down there.

The GDP per capita differential is more than a bit of a lag. Canada’s GDP per capita used to be nearly on par with the U.S. Now, it sits around $60,000 USD while in the United States it is nearly $94,000 USD.

Despite being a resource-rich economy, Canada is being blown away economically by its southern neighbours, and it is directly due to Ottawa’s policies.

Kemle claims capital flight would accelerate in an independent Alberta, but that is speculative and unlikely.

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He points out how Alberta’s economy depends heavily on interprovincial flows of goods, people, capital, and infrastructure, but that isn’t really true. Most of Alberta’s economy is dependent on the flow of products going north to south, and ironically that is due to decades of restrictive policies from central Canada. 

Alberta has some of the most abundant energy resources on the planet, and the world wants them. Investors are agnostic about which government is in charge, as long as they can get a return on their dollars and the return looks much more likely in an independent Alberta than it does with a province locked into a country swirling the economic drain.

Under Mark Carney’s leadership, the only way to get a new pipeline constructed appears to be by nationalizing it, and even then, construction of new infrastructure looks doubtful. The prime minister is unwilling to change the system breaking the economy and is using deficit financing to hold it together.

The exodus of investment will continue for Canada. But it could end for Alberta.

Due to geography, Alberta would still participate in the trade of goods and services from east to west. But the leverage enjoyed by Alberta would be infinitely higher. Trade deals with B.C. and Eastern Canada could and would be hammered out.

Kemle then closes with the same old trope that an independent Alberta would surely be annexed by the bogeyman south of the border, despite that eventuality having been thoroughly debunked by all reasonable analysts.

Americans don’t want to annex Alberta, but they certainly are happy to purchase Alberta’s products and will increasingly do so if Ottawa could be removed from the economic equation.