Carney government has not modelled what happens if CUSMA ends
Government admits it has conducted no economic modelling on renewal, amendment, termination or withdrawal from Canada's most important trade agreement ahead of 2026 review
The Carney government has admitted it has conducted no economic modelling on any of the major scenarios facing the future of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), despite a mandatory review of the trade pact looming in 2026.
The disclosure came in response to an Order Paper question from Conservative MP Jacob Mantle, who asked what economic forecasts Ottawa had prepared regarding the agreement's renewal, amendment, termination, or possible withdrawal by one of the member countries.
The answer: none.
"Global Affairs Canada has not modelled scenarios based on the renewal of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement for a further 16-year term, renewal with amendments, entry into annual review cycles without a 16-year extension, termination pursuant to Article 34.7, or withdrawal of a Party pursuant to Article 34.6," the department replied.
Mantle had asked whether the government had projected impacts on GDP, economic growth, inflation, trade balances, government finances, productivity, tariffs, and sector-specific impacts under various CUSMA outcomes.
The response indicates Ottawa has not produced economic forecasts for any of those scenarios.
The admission is particularly striking given the importance of the agreement to the Canadian economy. Roughly three-quarters of Canadian exports are destined for the United States, while CUSMA governs hundreds of billions of dollars in annual trade between the three North American partners.
The agreement's six-year review clause requires Canada, the United States and Mexico to evaluate the pact in 2026. Failure to agree on an extension could trigger annual reviews and eventually lead to the agreement's expiration.
Yet despite years of warnings from businesses, manufacturers, energy producers and exporters about uncertainty surrounding North American trade relations, Global Affairs Canada says it has not modelled the economic consequences of any of the possible outcomes.
As Canada heads into one of the most consequential trade reviews in recent history, the federal department responsible for international trade has not calculated what renewal, amendment, termination or withdrawal from CUSMA could mean for the Canadian economy.
Sheila Gunn Reid
Chief Reporter
Sheila Gunn Reid is the Editor-in-Chief, Alberta Bureau Chief, member of the board of directors, and host of The Gunn Show at Rebel News. Sheila also serves as President of the Independent Press Gallery of Canada. A mother of three and longtime conservative activist, Sheila is the author of bestselling books, including her most recent release, Independence Blueprint: What Alberta Can Learn From Quebec.
https://mybook.to/sheila
