Fact Check: Would independence cost $170 billion to set up?
The Alberta Transition Council fiscal report examines some risks separately, estimating that four adverse independence-related assumptions together would reduce its projected annual room by $13.5 billion.
A new Alberta Transition Council report estimates a $4.96 billion one-time cost to build the institutions of an independent Alberta. That is dramatically below the University of Calgary School of Public Policy’s widely reported $50 billion to $170 billion range.
The Council’s Budget and Costing Report prices the work of establishing sovereign government functions at about $1.65 billion a year for three years. It separately estimates $3.63 billion a year in added operating costs once those functions are running
Its companion report, Forward to Freedom, asks whether Alberta could afford its existing services and its new responsibilities using taxes and revenues already generated in the province. Under its assumptions, it projects $22.2 billion to $32.1 billion left over annually after the costs in its model.
That is potential room in a government budget, about $4,390 to $6,350 per resident, rather than a promised payment to every Albertan.
The University of Calgary report models a broader five-year fiscal outcome. Its roughly $50 billion smooth-scenario figure includes deficits arising from transition costs and economic impacts. Its roughly $169 billion difficult-scenario figure also includes deficits caused by a weaker economy.
The ATC fiscal report examines some risks separately, estimating that four adverse independence-related assumptions together would reduce its projected annual room by $13.5 billion.
Sheila Gunn Reid
Chief Reporter
Sheila Gunn Reid is the Editor-in-Chief, Alberta Bureau Chief, member of the board of directors, and host of The Gunn Show at Rebel News. Sheila also serves as President of the Independent Press Gallery of Canada. A mother of three and longtime conservative activist, Sheila is the author of bestselling books, including her most recent release, Independence Blueprint: What Alberta Can Learn From Quebec.
https://mybook.to/sheila
COMMENTS
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Bernhard Jatzeck commented 2026-09-24 11:34:39 -0400 FlagA mere pittance compared with how much of our money has been extorted by Ottawa and has been frittered away on its personal pet projects which have do not benefit us.
