One of the central economic questions in Alberta’s independence debate is increasingly difficult to ignore: what happens if one of Canada's strongest provincial economies stops participating in Ottawa's cycle of borrowing, deficits and rising debt-servicing costs?

The federal government's own numbers show just how expensive that cycle is becoming.

Ottawa projects public debt charges will increase from $54 billion in 2025-26 to $58.7 billion this year, eventually reaching $80.9 billion annually by 2030-31. The federal government itself attributes the increase to a growing stock of debt and higher interest rates.

That's approximately $222 million every day by 2030-31 simply to service federal debt.

Alberta, meanwhile, is producing economic numbers that distinguish it from much of the country.

The province generated $361.5 billion in real GDP in 2025, an increase of 2.7% from the previous year. Alberta also recorded the highest real GDP per capita of any province at $71,708.

Investment tells a similar story.

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Alberta attracted $76.1 billion in investment in 2025. On a per-capita basis, non-residential investment reached $15,123, 61 per cent above the Canadian average and second highest among the provinces. 

And Alberta continues to outperform on growth. The provincial government's current forecast expects Alberta's economy to outperform the rest of Canada in 2026 despite trade uncertainty and slower population growth

Economist Justin Wolfers recently highlighted data showing Canadian employment growth since December 2024 substantially outperforming employment growth in the United States.

Former Alberta government official David Knight Legg responded that the national figure obscures Alberta's contribution, arguing that Alberta has been responsible for roughly 80% of Canada's employment growth.

Minor correction:
Canada isn’t creating jobs. Alberta is.

That 4x job growth number is because ALBERTA is creating 80pc of all the job growth in Canada.

Looking forward to the Globe and Mail covering how Alberta is creating Canadas job growth numbers .

Canada ex-Alberta… https://t.co/9iUVlnHPkB

— David Knight Legg (@KnightLegg) August 7, 2026

And that leads directly back to Alberta's independence debate.

An independent Alberta would not simply receive a proportional piece of Ottawa's existing federal debt and then continue paying Canada's interest bills forever. How federal assets and liabilities would be divided would have to be negotiated as part of secession.

There would almost certainly be arguments that Alberta should assume an appropriate share of Canada's existing federal liabilities. There would also be negotiations over Alberta's share of federal assets. But after separation, Alberta would control its own borrowing and fiscal policy rather than remaining automatically exposed to whatever new debt future governments in Ottawa decided to accumulate.

That means Alberta's long-term debt trajectory would become an Alberta decision.

Meanwhile, Ottawa's current trajectory is already clear. The federal government projects its debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to 42% by 2030-31, while annual interest charges climb toward $81 billion.

Increasingly, it is worth asking what remaining financially tied to Ottawa will cost.

Independence would bring significant fiscal negotiations, including the division of federal assets and liabilities. It would not magically erase Alberta's existing obligations.

But it would do something economically consequential: give Albertans control over whether they keep accumulating Ottawa's future ones.