Loblaw anticipates continued grocery price increases in Canada due to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs, according to BlogTO.

The retailer’s May food inflation report indicates upcoming price increases on numerous everyday grocery items across its banners (Loblaws, No Frills, Real Canadian Superstore), though the company suggests the situation could have been worse for consumers.

In March, when the Canada-U.S. trade war started, the grocery giant informed shoppers that food prices wouldn't be immediately affected.

Temporary retaliatory tariff suspensions, combined with a stable but low Canadian dollar, have led Loblaw to believe that a significant or prolonged period of high food inflation is now less likely.

However, numerous imported U.S. food items like produce, rice, pasta, dairy, and coffee, alongside health and wellness products such as soap, shampoo, and cosmetics, still face tariffs.

Canada dropped most counter-tariffs to 'nearly zero' before the election https://t.co/uvNSIOV7ha

— Yanky 🇺🇲 (@Yanky_Pollak) May 19, 2025

Last month, Loblaw reported that Canadian counter-tariffs had a minimal impact on March food prices due to existing inventories, but higher prices are expected on shelves soon.

"In a conventional grocery store, there can be upwards of 80,000 items, and consumers can expect tariff-related increases of approximately 6,000, about half of which are food," said the retailer, who notes that most of these products have a non-U.S. alternative available.

Grocers are countering tariff effects by sourcing alternative suppliers and informing customers via labeling. Manufacturers are also adapting supply chains to bypass the U.S. to keep prices down.

“While the tariff situation might be improving between the U.S. and other countries, that’s not yet the case here in Canada,” reads a May 14 LinkedIn post from Per Bank, Loblaw's CEO.

“In fact, we’ll be facing a large wave of tariff-related increases in the weeks ahead.”

Experts cite international events like the Russian-Ukraine war as a driver of food inflation and the Canadian dollar's lesser value than the U.S. dollar.

MORE: https://t.co/wy7s0bRrTz pic.twitter.com/lIZpPr65pg

— Rebel News (@RebelNewsOnline) July 12, 2023

Despite overall inflation cooling to 2.3% in March, Statistics Canada reports grocery price inflation rose to 3.2% in March and further to 3.8% last month, contrasting with the lower overall inflation rate of 1.7%.

StatsCan reported that year-over-year price increases were largely driven by fresh vegetables (up 3.7%), fresh or frozen beef (up 16.2%), and coffee and tea (up 13.4%). Prices for takeout also rose at a faster rate in April than March.

Even before trade disputes, the Liberal government failed to address rising food costs, exacerbating household financial stress. The Agri-Food Analytics Laboratory has repeatedly stated that grocery affordability is a major concern for Canadians.

A December 5 report predicted 2025 food inflation would not exceed 5%, when it was at 2.8%. “Looking ahead to 2025 we are expecting a family of four with the same demographic makeup to spend $16,833.67,” it said.

Global factors like geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Ukraine war), energy costs, inflation, and the weak Canadian dollar are driving up food prices, according to the annual report.

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