A new poll from Innovative Research Group, commissioned by federalist third-party advertiser Vote to Stay, shows 78% of Calgary respondents and 80% of Edmonton respondents would definitely or probably vote to remain in Canada. In central and northern Alberta, the number is 66%, and in southern Alberta 72%.

Sheila Gunn Reid, Lise Merle, and Canadian Taxpayers Federation Prairie director Kris Sims shared their thoughts on what these numbers mean on Wednesday's Buffalo Roundtable — and they had questions about what the poll is actually showing.

Sheila's first concern was in the poll's methodology. Innovative Research Group broke the province into five regions but doesn't drill down to the municipal level outside major city centres.

"The demographics outside of the cities are vastly different," she said. "I would love to see this broken down by municipality." The Edmonton number in particular drew a wry observation: 80% is actually lower than she would have expected. "It's a government city," she said. "They elect the NDP provincially, they'll elect a Liberal MP here and there."

Ralph Klein, she noted, called Edmonton a beautiful city with too many socialists and mosquitoes. "That is the most evergreen statement in politics."

Kris offered her own anecdotal, ground-level data point. 

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Walking her dog through Lethbridge, she has been informally tracking flags and yard signs. Her estimate: residents are roughly split 50-50. "And the more government-y that you are," she said, "if you work for the government, if your sister-in-law works for the government — you're going to be shifting because you're looking out for your own best interest."

The Buffalo panel also raised parallel to the United Kingdom's Brexit vote.

There, pre-vote polling consistently showed the Remain side leading, was used to suggest the Leave campaign was a fringe movement, and, eventually wound up being proven wrong.

"I feel like they're going to be in for a surprise with the people of Alberta," Lise said. Sheila agreed, pointing out that the independence movement put 7,000 volunteers on the ground during one of the worst winters in recent memory. "If the intent of this polling is to demoralize the independence movement," she said, "it's probably going to have the opposite effect."

Kris said the CTF is not taking a position on independence, but she spoke candidly about her own experience spending over a decade on Parliament Hill trying to bridge the East-West divide. "I tried for many years," she said. "It didn't really take."

Kris said seeing frozen bank accounts during the lockdowns was the moment that crystallized something for her. She also pushed back on Eastern media framing the referendum as a waste of taxpayer money.

"It isn't a waste of money to have we the people be able to speak on things," she said — and reminded viewers that October 19 is not simply a vote on leaving Canada. The ballot also includes questions on Senate abolition, health-care fees for recent arrivals, and judicial appointments.

"There are lots of really interesting things on that ballot," she said. "Democracy costs money. And it's funny that's where they want to pinch pennies."

The Buffalo Roundtable airs Wednesdays at 11 a.m. MT / 1 p.m. ET.