Alberta Fact Check: Would B.C. embargo trade with an independent Alberta? Not likely
A trade embargo between B.C. and an independent Alberta would likely hurt B.C. more — Alberta could still ship resources south to American customers, while Canadian goods needing West Coast access would be blocked without Alberta's rail cooperation.
Opponents to Alberta’s independence movement often like to imply if Alberta chose to become independent, British Columbia would cease all trade and diplomatic relations. The neighbouring province would go off into a self-destructive fit of pique and leave Alberta stranded from all access to the West Coast.
During a debate with Keith Wilson, former premier Jason Kenney said independence would turn Alberta into, “a landlocked commodity-driven economy that would need to find a way to ship its resources to the rest of the world,” calling it “the single most dramatic act of economic suicide in modern history.”
Concordia University economics professor Moshe Lander said, “...you're going to be able to negotiate free passage to the ocean for pipelines with now a Canada that's going to be resentful…”
The independence debate landscape is rife with variants on the point. A scorned Canada would use B.C. to vindictively starve Alberta should the province choose independence, possibly driving it into the arms of the United States as trade funnels even more into a north-south direction.
Statements from newly minted B.C. Conservative Party Leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay indicate political leadership in B.C. could be more pragmatic in the event of Alberta’s independence.
In response to a question about the potential scenario of independence from Alberta she said, “I would maintain relations, economic relations.”
Findlay has also pitched that she wants to double export capacity for resources from Saskatchewan and Alberta.
Granted, Findlay is only the leader of the opposition in B.C. right now, but she is well poised to become the premier in the next election. Her statements reflect economic reality.
A trade embargo between B.C. and an independent Alberta would likely harm B.C. more than Alberta.
Resources from Alberta could still be shipped south to American customers, but Canadian goods trying to access the West Coast or coming from the West Coast would be backed up unless Alberta allows rail access. It would be a very short trade war if it were ever to come to pass.
Lack of refinery feedstock would leave B.C. without aviation fuel within a week, and the ports would be overloaded with unshipped containers.
There will be many challenges for a newly independent Alberta. Access to the West Coast for commodity exports won’t be one of them.
Cory Morgan
Cory Morgan is an Alberta-based columnist, political commentator, and longtime advocate for Western Canadian independence. He is the author of the recently updated book The Sovereigntist’s Handbook, a grassroots guide for independence supporters and political activists.
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