New polling shows roughly 7 in 10 Albertans would vote to stay in Canada ahead of the October 19. referendum question. Data from Angus Reid has the leave side at 33%, Main Street at 28%, Janet Brown at 27%, and Leger at 15%.

Sheila Gunn Reid and Let Alberta Decide founder Keith Wilson broke down what these numbers mean on Wednesday's Buffalo Roundtable.

Wilson said he is not surprised, not concerned, and not ignoring it. "We treat it seriously," he said. "We don't let it demoralize us."

But he had significant reservations about the reliability of the numbers themselves. Polling methodology has fundamentally changed since the days when every household had a landline and everyone watched Peter Mansbridge, he said, noting polls can also be used strategically.

"They're trying to capitalize on the herd mentality," he said. "They're saying to the passive listener: you don't want to be that guy who sticks out. You want to go with the pack."

He also put the timeline into context. A normal campaign runs 28 days, while his sgroup, Let Alberta Decide, has been at this since June. With the referendum still a month away, campaigns at this stage regularly look one-sided before flipping in the final 10 days — something that happened to Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre, Wilson highlighted. 

"Most normal campaigns, you can have one side just kicking it and the other side done, and they flip it in the last week," he said.

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Wilson was sharper on the federalist campaign itself. It started, he said, by conceding that Alberta had legitimate grievances and that the province had been treated badly; then came silence, and then came fear. "And that's all they got," Wilson said. 

"They have no plan. They have no mechanism to trigger an adult discussion with the rest of Canada about a more fair arrangement for Alberta."

He also raised the media context, pointing out that reporters calling him for comment on the polling are having roughly $30,000 of their salary subsidized by Ottawa.

"What angle are they going to take?" he asked.

Wilson's central point was about what the October 19 vote actually decides. "It is not a vote for separation," he said. "It's a vote for whether you are happy with and want more of what Ottawa is delivering."

He listed what that means in practice: more two-tier justice, more uncontrolled immigration, more deficit spending, more red tape, more job creators leaving, more taxes, more inflation — and a federal government now pursuing an associate EU membership while picking a fight with Canada's largest trading partner and customer.

"If you vote option one, think of the message you're sending to Carney," Wilson said. "You're saying: 'Bring it on, man. Do whatever you want to us. You're only three quarters of the way into my pocket. Go to the bottom, take it.' That's the message you're sending."

A vote for option two, he said, sends a different message: it's time for an adult conversation, and Alberta can do better.

The Buffalo Roundtable, Rebel News' weekly livestream focusing on Western Canada, airs Wednesdays at 11 a.m. MT / 1 p.m. ET.