Many people in several countries have shared misinformation about the events happening in Alberta through social media. They can usually be dismissed.

In Peter Zeihan’s case, though, he has an audience of nearly a million subscribers on YouTube and is considered to be a geopolitical expert. His views on the independence movement must be fact checked.

From a hillside in Italy, Zeihan shared a remarkable amount of misinformation in a short video. It’s evident that he is speaking to a predominantly American audience, as he describes Danielle Smith as a governor of sorts. That’s the most accurate part of his tirade.

He explains that 10% of the citizenry of Alberta signed a petition to invoke an independence referendum which will be held later in summer. The number of signatures required was 10% of those who voted in the last election and the referendum is scheduled for October 19.

It may sound pedantic to correct these things, but it establishes his loose relationship with the facts early.

He then states that the referendum is binding by Canadian law and it would force the country to let Alberta go if there is a Yes vote. The referendum to be held is non-binding, and even if it was Clarity Act compliant, that only forces the country to begin negotiations.

Zeihan reads in some implications making the referendum sound much more immediately impactful than it is.

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Then, Zeihan begins to ramble on how Alberta has suffered from an economic imbalance within Canada due to having a lower age demographic than the rest of the country.

There is a little truth to this, in that Alberta pays out much more into the Canada Pension Plan than it receives, but the age gap is far from the primary factor of Alberta’s economic and social differences with Ottawa.

He then says Canada’s policies of mass migration have eased this imbalance somewhat and implies it was beneficial to Alberta. The only way mass migration has eased economic imbalance in Alberta has been to drag Alberta’s standard of living down closer to that of the rest of the country.

Next, he says Alberta would be economically “screwed” if it were independent because oil and grain are commodities typically priced and traded in American dollars.

It’s hard to follow his rationale here. That is how these commodities are traded today and they still would be later. Canada knows how to calculate currency exchanges and Alberta could probably figure it out, too.

One thing that wouldn’t happen is the mass transfer of funds to Ottawa no matter what currency is involved.

He stated this would force Alberta to negotiate a free trade deal with the rest of Canada. It is presumed a deal would be negotiated with the rest of the country post-independence. With the leverage of controlling access from Eastern Canada to the West Coast, Alberta could surely negotiate a deal with the rest of the country in short order.

This is hardly an insurmountable barrier.

Then he trotted out the old canard of Alberta joining the USA. That option isn’t in the cards and never has been.
It appears that Peter Zeihan felt he had to weigh in on the issue but did little more than take a cursory look at the situation before speaking up. Surprisingly lazy practice for an ostensible expert in geopolitics.

Alberta’s independence movement isn’t driving investment away. But misinformation from people like Zeihan can do so.

Perhaps he should just stick to hiking the hills in Europe and stay clear of the Canadian situation, if only for the sake of maintaining his own credibility.