At the beginning of last June, Premier Danielle Smith stated at a press conference that it would cost Albertans a staggering $400 billion if the province were to become independent.

At the start of September, the Canada West Foundation pegged the cost of Alberta independence at around $200 billion. Apparently, the cost dropped by half.

Not to be outdone, a report just released by a group from the University of Calgary has found that the cost could be as low as $50 billion. An eight-fold decrease from the premier’s projection.

So, what would be the cost of Alberta’s independence ring in at?

All three estimates come from federalist-leaning sources (the University of Calgary one was commissioned by the government). They were inspired to make the potential cost of independence as high as possible. One difference with the latest report was that the federal debt share wasn’t baked into transitional costs, while the prior two added it as if it were a new expense.

There will doubtless be some startup costs for Alberta if it were to become independent. Federal infrastructure already in existence in the province could be repurposed with a change of flags, and federal staff could be transferred to new provincial roles, but it would still come with expenses. Some brand-new capital expenditures would be required for things such as setting up border control stations and foreign offices. Much of what an independent Alberta would need, though, is already here. There would also be some savings. Let’s not pretend Alberta would feel compelled to replicate the CBC or even Canada Post’s models in a new nation.

There also would be some economic costs during the transition period, as the Canadian dollar would likely take a hit, and instability would chill investment until a new system is in place.

When we see a range difference of 700% between the claim made by the premier and the latest report, it makes it difficult to know if any of the projections are accurate.

One thing that is certain, though, is that the projected costs have been on a downward trajectory since the referendum campaign began and people dig more deeply into the numbers.

There will be short-term costs for independence. Albertans are aware of that. The question is whether or not those costs would be worth it to become independent. In looking at the trend of projections, the cost is looking like less of a hurdle all the time.