Toronto columnist Tasha Kheiriddin wrote a column in the National Post entitled “Separatism is failing in Alberta and Quebec”.

Is it though?

If separatism were failing, Quebec would not be days from handing government to an avowedly separatist party, and Alberta would not be holding a province-wide vote that puts a path out of Confederation on the ballot. Those are not the symptoms of a spent idea. They are the symptoms of an idea that has moved from the fringe into the machinery of government.

Kheiriddin notes that Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s Parti Québécois is headed for a majority while only 29 percent would vote Yes and two-thirds think a referendum would fail. She reads that as voters shrugging at independence. The more honest reading is that voters are willing to put separatists in charge of the state anyway. That is not how dying movements behave.

Would four years of governance under an overtly secessionist government reduce the local appetite for independence? Does she think they plan to manage the province as federalists?

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Likewise in Alberta, while polling may indicate that support for independence may not be in majority territory yet, the fact that a referendum is being held on the issue proves a significant level of support and that the concept is ascendant.

She points to national popularity growing for Mark Carney while fear of the big bad USA drives citizens to rally around the federal Liberals. An immediate-term issue which will cease to be a factor in two years doesn’t spell an end to the independence movement.

In fact, it may explain why Quebec is ready to elect an independence-focused party to power while not being ready to vote for independence in a referendum yet. They are letting an issue resolve itself first. That looks more like a strategic long game than a surrender on separatism. Carney’s failure to strike a deal with the USA doesn’t make federalism look more appealing in Alberta or Quebec.

It takes quite a stretch to look at a country being torn from both sides by growing separatist movements and then claim the movements are on the wane. Momentum matters more than what an up/down vote on independence could look like tomorrow. Ten years ago, independence movements weren’t even on the radar of Canadians. Today the issue dominates every headline. That is not an indication of failure by any measure.