Calgary Chamber CEO Deborah Yedlin made the case this week that Albertans pursuing independence may miss out on a generational investment opportunity. The problem is, history has shown that Alberta has missed out on hundreds of billions of dollars in investment due to the status quo over the last couple of generations. The referendum offers Albertans an opportunity to break free from that cycle of failure.

Further, Albertans aren’t facing a vote for independence. Not yet anyway. On October 19, Albertans are not asked whether to leave Canada. They are asked whether Alberta should remain a province or whether the government should commence the legal process toward a later, separate, binding referendum. The order in council says this result is not binding. Yedlin should keep the debate within the real context.

The opportunity Yedlin wants protected is not a signed, financed, shovel-ready project. It is a spring and summer of federal-provincial paper which to date has been gathering dust. A generational opportunity is a thing you can put on a balance sheet for 30 years. A memorandum that exists because a new prime minister needs Western peace before an autumn vote is a political window.

Yedlin is trying to imply there is a new Ottawa attitude today that may be put at risk. If the Chamber now sees a thaw, that is because the political risk in Confederation got expensive enough that Ottawa blinked. That is an argument for leverage, not against it. A deal offered to keep Alberta in the room is not proof the room was always generous. It is proof the threat of Alberta walking changed the price of keeping it seated.

Uncertainty has a price. So does a federation that only discovers Alberta’s “economic potential” when a ballot is in the field. Yedlin wants the file kept closed so investors can enjoy the current window. Investors should notice that the window was built on conditions Alberta did not write and can lose in the next federal cycle.

If the Carney-Smith package is real, it will survive a process vote. Capital that only arrives on the condition that Alberta never asks a constitutional question is capital based on subservience.

Yedlin says uncertainty is the enemy of investment. That’s not always true. Ottawa offers a certainty of cancelled projects, endless red tape and opposition to Alberta’s economic development. That’s why the MOU she trumpets as a victory has only garnered a token and minuscule amount of private investment.

If Yedlin were to be believed, energy companies would be falling over themselves to take part in this grand generational opportunity. Despite her job title, though, Yedlin has never been one to demonstrate business acumen. Real CEOs know the game, and they won’t play in it until the rules change for Alberta. The referendum may just lead to the opportunity the next generation of Albertans needs and deserves.