Premier Danielle Smith said there's no clear public interest in Alberta leaving the Canada Pension Plan (CPP), a move opposed by the federal cabinet regarding the $699.6 billion fund.

“We don’t have all the answers we were hoping from the federal government about what the transfer would be,” Smith told reporters. 

Alberta awaited asset-transfer details from the Chief Actuary for almost a year, but their analysis failed to provide figures, reported Blacklock’s.

"We received their interpretation of the legislation, but it did not contain a number or even a formula for calculating a number," reads an emailed statement from Alberta’s Finance Ministry.

Premier Smith in 2023 cited a consultant's report claiming the province's entitlement to 53% ($370.8 billion) of CPP proceeds, referencing the Canada Pension Plan Act's provision allowing provinces to opt out of the 1966 fund.

Canada's Chief Actuary rejected the hypothetical allocation in a December 21 report, Position Paper: Subsection 113.2 Of The Canada Pension Plan.

A University of Calgary economist, Trevor Tombe, calculated Alberta's share of pension assets to be closer to $150 billion, according to the Position Paper, while the Actuary did not disclose her own figures. 

Smith acknowledged that if the figures don’t reduce premiums enough, “then Albertans might decide it isn’t worth it." 

.@ABDanielleSmith walks away from proposal to pull Alberta from Canada Pension Plan: "I am not seeing there is an appetite to put it to the people." https://t.co/zQYKc3QVHa #cdnpoli @FinanceCanada pic.twitter.com/5lxgcdwdYI

— Blacklock's Reporter (@mindingottawa) May 2, 2025

“What is actually happening with the Pension Plan initiative?” asked a reporter. “I have said I would put it to the people if I saw evidence they wanted to vote on it,” replied Smith. “I am not seeing that at the moment.”

“If I am misreading the public on that and they want to have an actual vote on it, then that is another issue that can be put forward by citizens’ initiative,” she said.

Albertans who wanted to withdraw from the national plan were free to petition for a vote under the province’s 2021 Citizen Initiative Act, Smith said. 

“But at the moment … I am not seeing there is an appetite to put it to the people.”

NEW: PMO releases open letter from the PM to Alberta premier Danielle Smith, expressing "deep concern" over the province's intentions to pull out of the Canada Pension Plan. pic.twitter.com/zxNkIkKOOU

— 𝘽𝙧𝙮𝙖𝙣 𝙋𝙖𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙛𝙞𝙪𝙢𝙚 (@BryanPassifiume) October 18, 2023

The federal cabinet repeatedly claimed, without explanation, that Alberta's withdrawal would cost all pensioners nationwide.

“The harm it would cause is undeniable,” then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wrote in a 2023 letter. “Withdrawing Albertans from the Canada Pension Plan would expose millions of Canadians to greater volatility.”

Then-Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault, the senior Alberta minister in the federal cabinet at the time, ridiculed Alberta’s calculations. “I don’t buy the math,” he told reporters. 

Alberta contends its demographics and economy are disadvantaged by the Canada Pension Plan, estimating a $5 billion saving in the first year if it establishes its own pension plan.

Finance Minister Nate Horner said a review of the chief actuary’s report is ongoing, tabling any conversation of a referendum for a later date.

Alberta tabled a Pension Plan (APP) report last summer, outlining billions in annual savings. However, without an agreed-upon CPP asset transfer, a referendum is unlikely.

MORE: https://t.co/E7VUj1VzMr pic.twitter.com/GCt9TcShIG

— Rebel News (@RebelNewsOnline) December 20, 2024

Experts, including economists, other provincial premiers, and the CPP Investment Board have put the figure much lower. The province paused consultations until the chief actuary could provide figures on the asset transfer.

The CPP Investment Board puts the value at close to $100 billion.

An Angus Reid poll indicates Albertans are skeptical of the proposed pension plan due to the potential transfer size, with 48% preferring to remain in the CPP and 36% favouring the APP. Eighteen percent are undecided.

The proposal received less than one-third support in Québec (32%) and Saskatchewan (31%), while over half of Canadians opposed, nationwide. Québec has had its own pension plan since 1966.

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