A new report from the Parliamentary Budget Officer says federal personnel costs are still climbing and will add billions to the deficit unless Ottawa applies real restraint.

According to the PBO analysis, federal personnel spending is estimated at $71.1 billion in 2024–25 and is on track to reach $76.2 billion by 2029–30 “in the absence of expenditure restraint,” which would cumulatively add $8.5 billion to the deficit over five years. The PBO also pegs overall compensation per full-time employee (FTE), including salary, pensions and benefits at more than $172,000 by 2029–30. 

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The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is calling for Prime Minister Mark Carney to shrink government. 

“This report shows those costs will continue to balloon unless the government finally cuts spending,” said CTF federal director Franco Terrazzano, urging Carney to “cut the size and cost of the bureaucracy” to deliver tax relief without piling on more debt.

The scale of the run-up is stark.

Personnel spending has surged from $40.2B in 2016–17 to roughly $71B this year, a jump of about 77% with the PBO previously documenting a sharp rise even before this latest projection, up to $65.3B in 2023–24, +15.7% year-over-year, including one-time items.

Headcount has also ballooned.

The Treasury Board’s own snapshot shows the federal public service grew from 283,000 (2010) to 357,000 (2023), and the PBO’s July update, drawing on departmental plans, says FTEs were expected to reach 445,000 in 2024–25 across the whole of government. 

Public patience appears thin. 

A Leger poll commissioned by the CTF earlier this month found 54% of Canadians want the size and cost of the federal bureaucracy reduced, while half say federal services have gotten worse since 2016 despite the hiring spree and higher costs.

Canadians won’t just be paying more for government; they’ll be paying interest on it, too. The PBO’s spring outlook also flagged rising debt-service pressure through 2029–30.